In the past, all Grand Bullrun di Bitcoin were also characterized by the presence of a Alts-Season.
Instead, in the Current cyclea real Altcoin season has not yet been seen, so much so that some are starting to doubt that we could happen by the end of the year.
However, the situation is actually more complex than that, and it is necessary to analyze it in detail in order to really understand it.
The past in Alts-season
The first major Bullrun of Bitcoin, the most important in terms of percentage of earnings, occurred in 2013.
At the time, to be honest, there were very little altcoins (Ethereum, for example, did not yet exist), with a Minimum market capitalization. Despite this, the Dominance of the BTC It fell from 95% to 88%, and although it could seem small, it is actually a season in allusion which lasted nine months, even if it happened in two shorter phases (two months and four months) interrupted by a brief Bitcoin season.
The absence of Ethereum on the cryptographic markets, however, characterized this cycle, so much so that in the following cycle, the force of the ETH proved to be really remarkable.
In fact, during the great Bullrun of 2017The Alts-Son was sensational, the domination of bitcoin going from 85% in less than 34%, in ten months, but still in two phases separated by a brief season of Bitcoin, the first months of the first month and the second lasts a month.
During the last major bullrun, that of 2021There was only one real alts-season, which in the space of four months made the Domination of Bitcoin of 70% at less than 47%. There was then a subsequent mini-season lasting one month which increased it to 42%.
The current cycle
From End of December 2022Bitcoin domination seems to be almost continuous ascent.
In other words, until today, the current cycle of cryptography markets has not yet seen a real season.
There was only one mini-suisison only lasts two weeks in the second half in November of last year.
Bitcoin domination has increased 63%And he always seems to grow. This could also increase for a few more months, and maybe even reaching 65%.
It must be remembered that the domination of bitcoin moves very slowly, or to be more precise, it moves with a Extremely contained volatilityCompared to the prices of BTC and Eth.
Many begin to believe that the current cycle could Do not see a real Altans season.
The role of Ethereum at the start of the Alts-season
One important thing to analyze is the role of Ethn price.
Taking into account the Trend over time of the price of Ethereum expressed in Bitcoin (ETH / BTC)We discover that the All high times was reached precisely during the great Altes season of 2017/2018, at 0.123 BTC.
Note that during the bears market that followed, it fell to 0.016 BTC In just a year and a half, but from July 2020, he increased again.
However, the peak of 2021 was much lower than four years earlier, because it stopped at 0.088 BTC.
This already highlights how the fact that the 2021 alts-season is generally lower than that of 2017/2018 was precisely due to Ethereum, who in 2018 managed to drop the domination of Bitcoin to his Historical need of 33%While in 2021, he managed to lower it slightly below 40%, in addition only during the subsequent bear market and only in anticipation of the transition from Ethereum to the proof of assistance.
The problem is that the role of Ethereum during the current cycle has has further decreasedAnd significantly, since its bitcoin price fell below 0.019 BTC.
It should therefore not be surprising that Ethereum holders are currently be mocked by those of Bitcoin.
Possible allusivity of 2025
However, the Increasing climbing of geopolitical tensions could change the situation, and in particular, it could also put Bitcoin under pressure from the bear.
In this regard, however, it is necessary to add some important evidence.
The first is that the climbing of geopolitical tensions in recent months has been found weigh much more on altcoins than on Bitcoin (which resisted rather).
The second is that altcoins are practically never characterized by a period when the BTC works less well than altcoins because it is in distress greater, but on the contrary of a period when altcoins Output bitcoin After he went up but then stopped.
It therefore does not seem reasonable to expect that difficulties concerning Bitcoin can trigger a new Alters-season.
However, on the other hand, It does not even seem reasonable to expect that the domination of the bitcoin will remain so high throughout 2025.
The role of altcoins on cryptographic markets
Although Bitcoin is the Benchmark Asset of the Crypto MarketAs well as the real dominator of this market, he actually plays a single role Huge spaces open for altcoins.
A key point, in particular with regard to the Altes-season, seems to be that linked to even.
During the first Bulrun Major, the one in 2013, The tokens did not exist yetBut only indigenous cryptocurrencies of their own blockchains. At the time, the only significant same was DOGEwhich is the native crypto of the Dogecoin blockchain.
THE Absence of Ethereum Most likely, played a key role precisely because it did not allow the proliferation of mecoins.
Instead, during the following large bull, that of 2017The crypto market boom was characterized by the boom of IcosOr the market investments of new tokens created largely on Ethereum itself.
The last big Bullrun, that of 2021was also characterized by something similar, but mainly linked to even as Shiba Inu (which was a token on Ethereum).
Now, however, Solara took the relay of Ethereum as the most successful blockchain for the same, and this can have changed the game. It is possible, however, that it will always be the New tokens This will attract the most capital to altcoins in the event of the Altes season, which could always occur at any time.
SO, It is not at all possible to exclude that even in 2025 There could be a new Alts-season.
