Since the inaugurations of William Lai as president of Taiwan in May 2024 and Donald Trump as American president in January, Beijing was in advance. Will Lai take provocative measures that require an answer? And what is Trump's attitude towards Taiwan and his fight to stay outside the orbit of China?
The answers were complicated. In the first days of his presidency, Lai carefully avoided the unnecessarily Beijing offense. THE Taiwan economy force Last year, he seemed to relieve him of any political need to rally his nationalist base with actions or a rhetoric at the forefront towards the continent. But his democratic progressive party has no parliamentary majority, and he I can't be sure The Trump administration has its back. Whatever his political intention, Lai has become more strident on the questions of the Strait of Cross-Taiwan in recent weeks.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]On March 13, Lai delivered a speech in which he proposed 17 steps Taiwan is expected to take threats posed by China and his attempt to infiltrate his Taiwanese government and society. As you would expect, Beijing supported him, with 18 official comments via the state media that attacked Lai and his plans. Two weeks later, he was denounced as a “danger manufacturer” and the Chinese popular liberation army published propaganda videos simulating a blockade from the Auto-Strict Island. If it was too subtle, the Chinese navy conducted joint exercises around Taiwan on April 1 To simulate an “assault on maritime targets and on the ground, and a blockade on key areas and sea routes”, according to an APL official. The Chinese Coast Guard has deployed ships in a circular patrol around Taiwan.
We have seen similar movements and highlights in waters between China and Taiwan several times before. But this time, both sides try to decipher what the Mercurial Trump really thinks.
For the moment, Taiwan must protect his economy against Trump's pricing pressures. Lai negotiators held their first commercial talks with the White House on April 11, shortly after Bloomberg published an editorial by lai This proposed a reciprocal zero-tail regime with the United States and an increase in purchases and investment in the United States then called on April 14 for a “Taiwan plus the United States»Manager to help Taiwanese companies move and develop on the American market.
Although we did not yet know his tariff intentions towards Taiwan, Trump is extremely unlikely to reduce it, at least in the short term. Yes, he clearly explained his flexibility on territorial integrity (see Greenland / Denmark, Panama and even Canada). If it does not take the costs and risks to help Ukraine repel the Russian invaders, how confident Taiwan can be confident that Trump will commit American troops and taxpayers to defend an “ally” thousands of kilometers from the American coast?
At the same time, Trump filled his Hawks from China, and if there is an American ally, most of the Washington Republicans want to defend, it's Taiwan against China. Beijing knows that a large-scale invasion would risk direct war with the United States, a destructive bet for the already wobbly economy in China at a time when Trump added 145% tariffs to its expenses.
Find out more: Why Trump first flashes on China
For Chinese leaders, it is much safer to maintain a large-scale invasion until the military balance more decisively favors its forces, its economy is on a stronger basis and the United States is led by a more predictable president. The real risk is that China is testing the resolution of the United States and probe Trump's responses with incremental staircases on Taiwan, not large enough to create a crisis.
Could it be as simple. While American-Chinese relations decompose, the closure of the main communication lines between Washington and Beijing could allow any accident or a calculation error to turn into a full military crisis that the two prefer to avoid from afar.
