AMilitary tensions continue to pass out between India and Pakistan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra amended earlier this week to prevent water from crossing the border with Pakistan, saying that “India water will be used for the interests of India”.
On April 23, Modi suspended a 1960 treaty which allowed the two countries to share water from the Indus basin. The construction of infrastructure to stop the flow of water in Pakistan, however, would take years to achieve, and this decision would further reflect the resources of a country of water scorce.
Pakistan's water resources have already been overwhelmed by climate change, because the country faces temperatures, droughts and glaciers and melted superflies that have an impact on the time of water flow. Now, the movements of India could exacerbate the crisis and present long -term challenges for the agricultural sector of Pakistan.
Many Pakistani do not currently have access to clean and reliable water sources – partly due to climate change. During the months following the floods of 2022 killed at least 1,700 people, more than 10 million people found themselves without access to drinking water, according to a Unicef report. “There have been many difficulties for local populations to have access to water on a coherent basis,” said Bhargabi Bharadwaj, research partner at the Catham House Environment and Society Center. “This is already felt at the level of the local population, which has even eliminated this most recent escalation on the Agreement on the Industry Water Treaty.”
Why does India control Pakistan's water supply?
When the South Asian subcontinent was cleaned by the British in 1947, borders were drawn which divided the Industry river along India and Pakistan. “The problem begins on the first day,” said Hassaan Khan, assistant professor of urban and environmental policy at TUFTS University.
Find out more: How India threatens water armaments in its conflict with Pakistan
A large part of upstream waters are located in India, despite most of the irrigation systems that fall in Pakistan. “About 80% of Pakistan agriculture and the third of its hydroelectricity depends on the water in the Indus basin region,” said Bharadwaj. “There is a greater dependence on this basin for Pakistan than for India.”
The Industry Water Treaty was written in 1960 by the World Bank and forced the two countries to divide water from the river system as well. The treaty included mechanisms for resolving disputes – and was designed to last perpetuated.
For India to completely cut the water supply of Pakistan would be an impossible task. “Currently, India does not have the infrastructure capacity to really store excess water, which they should do if they try to cut by leaving this water to reach Pakistan,” said Bharadwaj.
But still, experts say that India could design small disturbances that would have an impact on the amount of water from flows in Pakistan. “Stopping the flow is not really possible,” says Khan. “What [India can do] is an impact at the time of the flow – one day more water ago, then stop. [It can] Create these small disturbances which, if they are not properly managed by Pakistan, can have an impact on the agricultural system. »»
The impact would probably be largely felt during the low speed season – from December to February – when there is less water to start.
But Bharadwaj notes that the Industry Water Treaty has been designed to withstand the many fights that the two countries have had over the years. “This is not the first time that has happened,” she says. “One of the very positive things of the industrial water Treaty is that it has resisted two previous wars and another limited conflict between the two countries, and this can be, I think, widely attributed to the strength of its conception.”
Why does Pakistan have a water crisis?
The crisis in the rarity of Pakistan water can be traced before the country's foundation. “The regions which now constitute most of Pakistan as part of the Industry basin, these are alluvial plains, so they are very fertile, but generally do not have much precipitation,” explains Daniel Haines, an associate professor in the history of risk and disaster at the College University of London whose research is focused on South Asia. “The ambition to increase the area of agricultural land has exceeded the amount of water available.”
From the 1930s and 40s, different regions of colonial India then already dispute which would obtain the amount of water for agricultural projects, explains hatred.
Climate change and rapid population growth is now aggravating things. Today, Pakistan is considered one of the countries most stressed by water in the world. And last winter was one of the driest in the history of the country, the Pakistan meteorological department reporting 67% Less precipitation What usual. According to the Germanwatch 2025 climate risk indexPakistan has classified as the country most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in 2022, because it was faced with one of the most expensive disasters in world history caused by floods – depositing a large part of the agricultural land in the country in danger and an impact on drinking water. But agricultural land also becomes unusable due to the increase in droughts, pushing more people in cities and put pressure on urban water supplies.
“Cities are now increasingly stressed by water, as water supply has not followed the increase in the population,” explains Khan.
On three -quarter Renewable water resources from Pakistan come from the outside of its borders, mainly from the Indus basin, and large cities depend on those for their drinking water. Any modification of the country's water supply will have major impacts on agriculture and livelihoods for millions, explains hatred. “Because the water system in Pakistan is already so stressed, all kinds of major disruption for even the moment, not to mention the volume, would potentially have fairly serious consequences.”
