- USD / JPY hovers below the keys resistance while Momentum shows signs of dropping out.
- The pair is under pressure by fed and mixed Boj signals.
- The action of the price linked to the range continues; Escape or breakdown planned soon.
The USD / JPY pair remains a focal point on the foreign exchange market, fluctuating in a key technical zone while the markets digest the evolution of expectations of economic and monetary policy.
The US dollar (USD) negotiating at 145.13, down 0.47%, against the Japanese yen (JPY) at the time of writing this report, the recent three -week gathering shows signs of fatigue, with this week's prices action reflecting indecision in the midst of a mixed feeling.
Although inflation has shown signs of cooling, managers of the Federal Reserve (Fed) have maintained a cautious tone, limiting the potential for short -term aggressive rate reductions. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to be weighed down by the ultra-launched policy position of the Banque of Japan (BOJ), although the recent verbal intervention of Japanese officials has introduced volatility into Yen's pairs.
The feeling of the risks and the yields of the treasure also remain at the heart of the USD / JPY directionality.
The daily momentum is below the resistance while the USD / JPY consolidates nearly 145.00
On the daily graphic, the USD / JPY has extended its recovery in the middle of the week, pushing above the simple 20-day mobile average (SMA) to 143.19 and recovering the psychological level of 144.00, which had previously actually act.
This decision was reinforced by a rupture above the Fibonacci trace level of 23.6% to 144.37, measured from the top of January to April, allowing the pair to reach a summit of 146.19 on Friday.
However, the bullish momentum has faded near the SMA of 50 days to 146.34, where the price experienced strong resistance.
The failure to maintain levels greater than 146.00 led to withdrawal and stabilization around the handle of 145.00, positioning the pair in a critical area defined by short -term mobile averages.
This area between the 20 -day and 50 days SMA represents a compression of the price action which could precede an escape in both directions.
The relative resistance index (RSI) rose modestly to 52.37, indicating a slight upward inclination in the momentum, although it remains in the neutral territory and lack of over -defusion conditions.
Daily graphic USD / JPY
Indecision of higher weekly spinning signals for USD / JPY
Taking a wider opinion, the weekly graphic reflects a maturation rally, with USD / JPY publishing its third consecutive weekly gain before respecting the resistance.
This change of momentum is illustrated by a top candlestick in rotation, a classic signal of market indecision and potential trend exhaustion.
The long upper shadow highlights the rejection near the top of 146.19, while the long shadow indicates a lasting interest in purchase of decrease less than 144.00, a level of psychological and technical meaning.
The resistance remains concentrated on the 10 -week SMA (145.96) and the 50 -day SMA, which both limited the increase this week.
The support is well defined between Fibonacci's retrace from 23.6% to 144.37 and the 20 -day SMA at 143.19, reflecting an area where the purchase of interest has appeared several times. The convergence of signals through deadlines indicates that if the broader trend remains constructive, the momentum has stopped and that the weekly closing to come will be key to shaping the trajectory in the medium term.
On the weekly graphic, the RSI is currently reading at 40.97, reflecting the moderate momentum and a lack of conviction in the wider trend, with the indicator still below the neutral line 50.
USD / JPY weekly table
USD / JPY at the inflection point in the form of escape or ventilation to define the next decision
An escape confirmed above the 50-day SMA (146.34) would signal a resumption of the bullish impulse in USD / JPY, opening the way to the next resistance to 147.09, the retracement of 38.2% of the decrease of January-April.
The purchases supported beyond this point could target the psychological level 150.00, especially if the yields of the American treasury remain firm, the economic data remain resilient or the political divergence between the Fed and Boj persists.
Conversely, the fact of not holding above 144.37 followed by a decisive rupture below the 20-day SMA would suggest the discoloration of the bullish impulse, the development of concentrating around 142.00 and potentially 140.00, in particular if the feeling of risk is weakened or if the American data disappoint.
