- USD / JPY is negotiated nearly 145.00 after failing to maintain gains greater than 146.20, under pressure by a softer US dollar and mixed American data.
- The overall household expenditure in Japan in Japan increased 2.10% in Y / Y, beating expectations, while the risks of American stagflation linger while the Fed officials warn against persistent inflation.
- The main technical levels include support at 144.82, 144.79 and 144.49, with resistance at 146.16, 146.31 and 148.30.
The USD / JPY pair fell around 145.00 after failing to extend the gains over a larger month of 146.20 earlier in the day. Retirement reflects a wider softening in the US dollar, which has strongly reversed while investors revolved the US-UK trade agreement and were paying attention to critical negotiations for American China this weekend in Switzerland. The USD dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against six main currencies, fell to 100.30s after peaking at 100.86, reflecting the growing market skepticism on the force of recent American trade agreements.
The American economic prospects remain mixed, Fed officials highlighting the risk of stagflation. Governor Barr recently noted that higher prices could disrupt global supply chains, pushing inflation while slowing economic growth and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the GDPNOW model nourished from Atlanta has maintained a solid estimate of Q2 growth of 2.30% of Saar, reflecting stable optimism, although prudent. However, the market remains suspicious, recent data suggesting that the American economy can be faced with significant opposite winds if business tensions increased.
In Japan, recent data has surprised the increase, overall household expenditure for March increasing by 2.10% in Y / Y, well above forecasts of 0.20% and by strongly reversing the drop in the month of -0.50% of the previous month. This improvement in consumer spending is a positive sign for the Japanese economy, potentially reducing pressure on the Banque du Japan (BOJ) to work on the Yen market.
Technical analysis
USD / JPY is currently negotiating nearly 145.00, with a lower bias reinforced by several key technical signals. The 50 -day EMA at 146.16 and 50 SMA days at 146.31 both drops down a downward pressure, as is the SMA from 100 days to 150.46 and 200 SMA days at 149.57, which remain firmly in sales territory. The 20 -day SMA to 143.17 provides certain support, but the Momentum indicators are mixed, with the RSI at 52.54 (neutral) and MacD flashing a purchase signal.
The main levels of support for the pair are identified at 144.82, 144.79 and 144.49, while the resistance is 146,16, 146.31 and 148.30. A rupture below level 144.80 could trigger the decline more, while recovery greater than 146.30 would be necessary to confirm a bullish reversal.
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