- The collapse of the USD/JPY during the North American trading, which walks near the under -day -to -day coverage of around 142.00.
- Ongoing uncertainty in trade and fading multilateralism weighing in market sentiment; The BOJ Meeting and US Economic Data Eyed.
- The key levels of technical resistance are seen around 142.37, 142.94, and 143.18.
The USD/JPY pair faces heavy sales pressure, slipping to 142.00 zone during the North American time Monday time. The investor's custody has resurrected as a broader optimization of the trade, which drives demand to safe haven Yen. Last week's tentative rebound in the regional sentiment pushed the USD/JPY back to 144.00, but this week's start -up has seen Yen's revised strength leading to major domestic and US events. Japanese markets remained closed on Monday for Showa's day, but attention was stable at the upcoming BOJ meeting where policy manufacturers were expected to hold rates at 0.50%. However, the Tokyo consumer price index (CPI) that excluded fresh food rose 3.4% year-year in March, indicating the continued inflationary forcing the BOJ to push closer to next year's tightening.
Meanwhile, the US dollar struggles amid trade negotiations. Despite the comments of Treasury Secretary Bescent on potential development in Asian countries and China's hope of China de-escalating, China strongly denies any ongoing conversation, stressing respect for one another is important. Retailers like Temu and Shein have raised prices significantly for US buyers, reflecting the greater costs of ongoing tariffs. Participants in the market are also expected in a packed economic calendar, which begins with the first Wednesday Reading of the Q1 US GDP, followed by a Nonfarm Payroll report of Friday. Both leaks can greatly influence the Fed's financial policy trajectory, with expectations rising for rate cuts if economic deterioration will continue in the second half of the year.
The transition from multilateralism to bilateral negotiations under the Trump administration has introduced long -term structural uncertainty. While clients are wondering if US trading policies can reduce global tariffs, history suggests prolonged instability. WTO obligations make it difficult to cut off unilatiral tariffs, and bilateral negotiations with FTA are lengthy processes, usually taking years to finish and implement. Increasing the complexity, China on Monday announced that it was not in active trade discussions in the US, emphasizing the winners of the trade wars. As a result, economic spillovers are increasing, with consumer prices rising dramatically in sectors such as retail. In front of the US, the DXY remains locked in a tight range of near 100.00, awaiting fresh direction of direction from the release of this week's data. The resistance for the DXY is located at 100.22 and 101.90, while the downside support lies at 97.73 and 96.94. Investors are careful, weighing trading headlines and potential changes to Fed policy.
The BOJ meeting on Friday also holds a great significance. Although increases in rate are not expected immediately, stronger than expected inflation reading and greater interruption in global trade may influence future guidance. Expectations for a BOJ rate increase were pushed back to late this year, along with market participants looking at the September-December window. Generally, Japanese yen can strengthen further slower global growth and more accommodative policies from other major central banks, including Fed, Boe, and ECB, all of which have a signal of readiness to ease if economic risks are rising.
USD/JPY technical review
Technical, USD/JPY shows clear bearish signals as it trades around 142.00, down 1.14% in the day, and near its sunny ranges range between 141.98 and 143.89. The KaMag -child Index index (RSI) at 38.71 is neutral, while the MACD offers a moderate purchase signal, creating a mix -a generally careful technical backdrop. Adding to the bearish case, the wonderful oscillator in –3.98 and the commodity channel index (CCI 20) at —52.62 both remain neutral, but slanted negative. Pressure sale is further strengthened by moving averages: the 20-day SMA sits at 144.40, the 100-day SMA at 151.24, and the 200-day SMA at 150.02-all above the current price and sign of the descending momentum. The shorter dynamic dynamics offer a bit of relief, with a 10-day EMA at 142.94 and the 10-day SMA at 142.37 both presents immediate barriers to resistance. The main levels of resistance to monitor were 142.37, followed by 142.94 and 143.18. A recovery above these obstacles is necessary to soften the current bearish momentum, but for now, the risks will remain tilt down the downside.
Sunny chart
