- The USD / JPY extends the decline, the trade near the lower end of the beach while the safety flows support the Yen before the Fed decision.
- The commercial friction between the United States and Japan, as well as the softening of American growth data and geopolitical risks, reduce the feeling of risks.
- Technical signals are downgraded with the pair capped under key mobile averages and Momentum indicators suggesting more downward.
The USD / JPY is negotiated on Tuesday, hovering in zone 142.00 while the demand for packages strengthens the Japanese yen. Risk aversion has intensified while global investors react to high geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions in the Middle East, renewed commercial friction and the movement of the global dynamics of central banks. Market players await the results of the decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with a particular accent in the tone of the directives of President Jerome Powell.
In Washington, US President Donald Trump held a joint press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, minimizing the need to renegotiate USMCA and focus on wider commercial priorities. Trump's comments on China's economic difficulties and the active negotiations of its administration with 17 trade partners added to the market discomfort. Meanwhile, the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, confirmed that the United States had officially rejected the demand for relief from Japan prices, maintaining 10% and 14% samples from Japanese exports. Japan's efforts to put pressure for a complete trade agreement remain at neutral, increasing the uncertainty of bilateral relations.
American economic data continue to offer a mixed image. The mars's trade deficit has widened considerably, probably contributing to a downward revision of GDP figures. Although the PMI of April ISM services increased to 51.6 from 50.8, internal components such as activity and employment disappointed. The GDPNOW model of Atlanta Fed now forecasts growth in the first quarter to 1.1%, a sharp decline compared to previous projections. Meanwhile, the Fed should hold stable interest rates on Wednesday, but the market will look closely at Powell's press conference for clues on the trajectory of future rates. Price traders currently in one rate in July and a second by the end of the year.
Japanese data is rare, but the country's position in US trade discussions is under control. Without breakthrough in pricing talks, Japanese exporters are faced with opposite winds, especially in cars and metals. In addition, a planned visit to American agricultural officials in Tokyo underlines the interconnected nature of commercial diplomacy, because Washington is looking for concessions in the sectors.
Technical analysis
From a technical point of view, the USD / JPY flashes lowering signals. The pair is currently negotiated near its daily beach (142.35 – 144.27), down -0.88% on the session. The relative resistance index (RSI) at 42.334 remains neutral, while the MacD gives a light purchase signal, creating a short -term noise. However, the impressive oscillator at -1.680 is flat, and the ADX (14) to 28.468 confirms the increase in sales pressure.
Key mobile mediums further strengthen the lowering perspectives. The 20 -day SMA at 143.20, 100 days to 150.73 and 200 days to 149.67 all the lower points. The short -term trend lines, including the EMA from 10 days to 143.41 and SMA at 143.33, now act as resistance to general costs. A sustained movement below 142.00 could open the door to new losses, while a single rupture above 144.00 would facilitate the momentum down the current.
With geopolitical tensions, mixed American macro-data and non-resolved American commercial disputes weighing on feeling, the USD / JPY remains vulnerable in the short term. Wednesday's communication from the Fed of Wednesday will be a key engine to find out if this downward trend is deepened or stabilizes.
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