- USD/CAD trading near the 1.3900 zone amid the continuing greenback weakness.
- Fed officials feature tariff-driven risks, while durable data of goods send mixed signals.
- The main resistance is clustered near 1.3905 and 1.4000, with support of 1.3865 and 1.3848.
The USD/CAD pair was seen spinning around the 1.3900 zone on Thursday, Light less during the day, as US (USD) dollars maintained momentum amidst the revised tariff uncertainty and conflicting US economic signals. Despite a stronger-than-anticipated headline with strong commodity reports, the underlying data fell flat, reinforcing investors. Meanwhile, Canada's dollar (CAD) sentiment, remains steadfast but lacking in the opposite strength shown by other major currencies, as the pair stays inside a narrow integration band established earlier on the week.
Federal Reserve (FED) Governor Christopher Waller struck a careful tone on Thursday, suggesting that tariffs could remove dynamic labor markets and weigh corporate rent decisions. He emphasized that many companies remain frozen on policy uncertainty and warned that rate cuts may eventually be observed if unemployment begins to rise. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack uttered a call for patience, indicating possible adjustments in June if economic conditions warned.
In terms of economic data, strong US goods orders fell 9.2% in March, which is more than expectations. However, the main figure that does not include transportation comes with flat, annoying enthusiasm. Separately, the initial claim of unemployment was tched until 222K, reflecting a slight softening in labor market conditions. Despite the bump driven by the data, USD feelings are often aware of the ongoing debate around the trade policy. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that no concessions were made in China on tariffs, emphasizing the lack of development in negotiations and weighing DXY, which moved closer to 99.30.
Technical perspective
From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD maintains a bearish tone. Kamag -child Index Index (RSI) sits in neutral territory around 37 recovering from oversold conditions, while moving the average convergence (MACD) continues to be lower. The momentum offers a slightly counterweight with a mild purchase signal, even though stochastic %K remains covered near oversold levels.
The indicators following the trend strengthen the downside bias. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, including 10-day and 30-day exponential moving averages, all drops down, capping reversed attempts. The resistance was mentioned in 1.3905, followed by 1.4002-11.4009 areas, while the support lies at 1.3865 and 1.3848. A clear break below this range can expose the pair to further overthrow, targeting the next region of 1.3745.
In summary, unless clearer development appears in trade talks or macro data that significantly changes expectations, USD/CAD may continue to undergo within its current range, with risks to tilt down the downside.
Sunny chart
