- On Friday, American data from Jolts will be monitored before the employment report was published in April.
- Job offers should be more fucked at 7.5 million in March.
- The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when defining policy.
The investigation into job offers and turnover (JOLTS) will be published Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data on changing the number of employment in March, in addition to the number of layoffs and questions.
JOLTS data is examined by market players and decision -makers of the Federal Reserve (FED), as it can provide valuable information on the dynamics of supply on the labor market, a key factor with an impact on wages and inflation. Job offers have decreased regularly since the achievement of 12 million in March 2022, indicating a constant recharge time of labor market conditions. In January, the number of employment remedies exceeded 7.7 million before lowering below 7.6 million in February.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
The markets expect job offers to withdraw at 7.5 million on the last working day in March. With the growing uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of the trade policy of the American president Donald Trump on economic and inflation prospects, political decision -makers of the federal reserve have expressed their concerns concerning a recharge time on the labor market.
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said last week that he feared that companies could start to fire workers because of the uncertainty caused by commercial friction. On a similar note, the governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, told Bloomberg that he would not be surprised to see more layoffs and higher unemployment. “The simplest place to compensate for pricing costs is to reduce pay,” said Waller.
It is important to note that the JOLTS report refers to the end of March, while the official employment report, which will be published on Friday, measures the data for April. Whatever the delayed nature of Jolts data, a significant drop in the number of use of employment could fuel fears on a labor market. In this scenario, the US dollar (USD) is likely to undergo renewed sales pressure with the immediate reaction.
On the other hand, a strong increase, with reading over 8 million, could suggest that the labor market remains relatively stable. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the markets do not expect the Fed to reduce the policy rate at the next political meeting in May, while evaluating a probability of almost 60% of a reduction of 25 basic points (BPS) in June. Consequently, market positioning suggests that a positive surprise could support the USD by tipping investors to another policy after May.
When the Jolts report is published and how could EUR / USD affect?
The job opening numbers will be published Tuesday at 2:00 p.m. GMT. Eren Sengezer, European session chief analyst at FXSTREET, shares her technical perspectives for EUR / USD:
“EUR / USD clings to a bullish position but loses momentum, with the indicator of the relative resistance index (RSI) on the daily graph of the region 60. Lowering, the Fibonacci Mobile Mobile 23.6% of the surface of February-May on the rise and the average of 20 days by passing by 1,1050 (fibonacci 38. 1.1000 (static level).”
“Looking north, the first level of resistance could be identified at 1,1400 (static level) before 1,1500 (round level, static level) and 1.1575 (April 21).”
American-Chinese trade faq
In general, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism at one end. This implies the creation of commercial barriers, such as prices, which cause counter-barriers, an increase in import costs, and therefore the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (United States) and China began in early 2018 when President Donald Trump set trade obstacles on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and an intellectual property flight from the Asian giant. China has taken reprisal measures, imposing prices on several American products, such as cars and soybeans. Tensions intensified until the two countries signed the US-China phase trade agreement in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to the economic and commercial regime of China and pretended to restore stability and confidence between the two nations. However, the coronavirus pandemic has focused on the conflict. However, it should be mentioned that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, maintained prices in place and even added additional samples.
Donald Trump's return to the White House as 47th American president sparked a new wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 electoral campaign, Trump has committed to imposing prices of 60% on China once he became his functions, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the American-Chinese trade war is supposed to resume the untrings in the global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in investment, in particular investments, and food consumption.
