Four main countries in Asia -Pacific – Australia, Singapore, the Philippines and South Korea – will organize elections next month, with two which take place this Saturday, May 3.
The pricing threats of American president Donald Trump are a constant suspension on the four competitions. Since Trump has interrupted the implementation of his so-called reciprocal rates until early July, the four countries negotiated with Washington to avoid being slapped new prices on their exports linked to the United States.
Here is who votes in the coming weeks, what problems are pushing voters on the ground – and how each country is struggling with a more protectionist, more volatile
Australia, May 3
The Australians will vote in the parliamentary elections on May 3, choosing between the current Prime Minister Anthony Albanian and his opponent, the most conservative Peter Dutton. The current surveys suggest that the leftist Labor Party, led by Albanian, is in the lead.
Foreign policy is generally not an “important factor” in the Australian elections, explains Ryan Neelam, director of public opinion and foreign policy at the Lowy Institute, a reflection group based in Australia. But it adds “this year is different”, thanks to Trump's tear by the global trade system.
Australia was only affected by a reference rate rate of 10%, as low as possible in the “reciprocal rate” policy of Trump, on the “Liberation Day”. However, Trump's prices indirectly threaten Australia: Neelam stresses that China is a major export market for Australia, endangering it from any slowdown in the second world economy.
This could be an additional drag on the economy of Australia, which already carries the weight of the increase in life costs.
Albanese also criticized the American prices on steel and aluminum. While the Australian exporters obtained exemptions under the first Trump administration, they failed to escape the prices this time.
But even if the prices are not directly in the minds of Australian voters, the man behind them – Donald Trump – is. The Lowy Institute survey reports a significant drop in confidence in the United States, with a majority of Australian voters disapproving of most of the American president's policies.
Dutton and the wider Australian conservative movement were closely linked to Trump at the start – for example, Dutton promised to do The United States, its first international trip, as opposed to the traditional choice of Indonesia – but this now seems to lead to their popularity.
“The conservatives are considered the party which can ensure the security of Australia,” explains Darren Lim, lecturer in international politics at the Australian National University. “They lost that [advantage] Completely, because the major threat right now comes from Trump himself. »»
Trump's unpopularity has already killed one of Dutton's great political proposals. The conservative candidate has made the commitment to end the distant work and to dismiss government employees, qualifying his Trump style repression an “error” earlier this year.
However, LIM points out that trade and prices are not included in the “first three” problems of the elections in Australia, the cost of living and housing dominating most of the discussions.
Huw McKay, a scholarship holder invited to the Australian National University and the former BHP chief economist, suggests that Trump's constant commercial flip -flops can help prices withdraw as a political problem. A 10% price looks like a free card “get out of prison,” he said.
However, in the long term, Australia probably considers Trump's trade threat to harmful. “Australia is very clear that the multilateral trade agenda is in its national interest, it will therefore do a lot of work behind the scenes, speaking to other nations which also understand that the multilateral framework for international trade is also in their best interest,” said McKay.
Singapore, May 3
The Singaporeans will also vote on May 3. The favorite of the general elections on Saturday is the action party of the people in power, led by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. PAP has ruled Singapore since the country's independence in 1965.
The main opposition party, the workers' party, hopes to increase its representation in the following parliament, but disputes less than a third of the available seats.
However, the elections on Saturday will be the first referendum of PAP's performance since Wong resumed the leadership of Lee Hsien Loong's party last year. Lee, the son of the first Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, led the country for two decades.
Wong “will seek a strong mandate to give it political and moral authority to make strong changes to a more generous social protection model”, explains Devadas Krishnadas, founder of the future-moves Group, a cabinet of cabinet in public policy. He adds that Wong “wants to be perceived as a politically strong and anchored leader to strengthen his hand in the negotiation of future trade agreements”.
Devadas suggests that a result below the PAP voting share of 61.24% in the previous elections of the 2020 could “weaken” the personal brand of Wong.
The Prime Minister of Singapore is a vocal critic of Trump's pricing policy, suggesting that this has made the world “more arbitrary, protectionist and dangerous”. Singapore’s opposition leader, the leader of the Pritam Singh workers, also supports Wong calls to the threats of Trump.
As Australia, Singapore manages a trade deficit with the United States, the country also received the reference rate of 10% on exports linked to the United States on April 2.
Singaporean officials hope to negotiate possible concessions on pharmaceutical products, the Times Straits reported Sunday. Trump threatened to impose prices specifically on drug imports. However, local officials do not believe that the 10% reference rate is negotiable.
Philippines, May 12
The Filipino voters will vote in mid-term elections on May 12, in the first major political test of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” of the administration of Marcos Jr. since he took office in 2022. The entire House of Representatives and half of the Senate will be presented in the elections.
As part of Trump's Liberation Day's Liberation Day Regime, Philippines imports will obtain a tax rate of 17%. This is less than other countries in Southeast Asia, and some Filipino officials see that an opportunity To increase the country's trade with the United States, which is also a close security ally.
Officials hope to negotiate the American rate rate up to zeroOr at least low enough for the country to have a “commercial edge” against its neighbors. The country offers to buy more American agricultural products to help rebalance trade.
However, the prices of the “Liberation Day” do not play an important role in Philippine political discussions, explains Julio Amador III, founder of Amador Research Services, a geopolitical risk company based in Manila. Instead, “mid-term elections will focus on domestic concerns, mainly corruption, jobs and food security”.
South Korea, June 3
The South Koreans will vote in the SNAP presidential elections on June 3, following the successful dismissal of former president Yoon Suk Yeol. The South Korea legislature dismissed Yoon at the end of December after trying and failed, imposing martial law and confirmed this decision in early April. The country of East Asia has been governed by acting presidents since then.
This political instability comes as the country's government is trying to negotiate a trade agreement with the United States even before Trump threatens a reciprocal rate of 25%, South Korea was already struggling with 25% tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum.
The opposition chief, Lee Jae-Myung, will appear against a conservative candidate still to be confirmed (who will be appointed on May 3).
Any conservative candidate will have a steep hill to climb. “The Conservative Party, the Popular Power Party, has really lost their legitimacy and their popularity” after the attempted coup of Yoon, notes Eunjung Lim, professor at the International Studies Division of the National University of Kongju.
However, prices, and the broader relationship of South Korea with the United States, is a problem that generally promotes the conservatives most suited to business. “The Conservatives of South Korea have more experience with Washington,” says Lim.
Interestingly, trade negotiations could raise the prospects of a conservative candidate of Dark Horse: Han Duck-Soo, the South Prime Minister and current interim president, now leading Korea's response to Trump prices. Local media reports suggest that Han can work as an independent candidate.
However, the winner of the elections may not have much room to maneuver.
“The word is that the reference rate of 10% is not negotiable. The automatic rate is not negotiable. So what do you have? ” Request Victor Cha, President of Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. For this reason, South Korea will try to “enlarge the agreement,” he said.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor of international relations at King's College in London and expert in Korea, suggests that American-Kore negotiations will focus on investment in the United States, defense purchases, access to technology and relations with China. “The United States will, in my opinion, showing very clearly in South Korea that it must be closer to the American position on China's issues,” he said.
This last article will be difficult for Korea. “They don't want to be put in a situation where they get an exemption in exchange for cutting out of China,” said Cha. “This is a losing situation for Korea.”
This story was initially presented on Fortune.com
