Now, Nansen Research has published an update stating that Fed's decision on rates should not have any significant impact on Bitcoin (BTC) price, currently around 97,000 USD.
The hypothesis is that the Fed will not only confirm the current rates, but also confirm the hypotheses of markets to three possible reductions of 25 points basis during 2025.
In fact, this is not certain that this will happen, because if the lack of rate cuts is expected, the Fed will not end up cutting the rates of 75 points basis for the rest of the year.
Therefore, if President Powell's words are to confirm this hypothesis, the price of Bitcoin may really be steadfast, but if he outlines another scenario, markets can scramble and re -reposition quickly, forming volatility.
The volatility of bitcoin (BTC) price: will oscillations continue around 97,000 USD?
In theory, in fact, volatility is now expected in crypto markets, and something that has happened in part, with an unexpected increase on BTC's night from 94,000 USD to 97,000.
While on the one hand the expected increase in volatility may have occurred, on the other hand, in similar previous situations, Powell words have yet to develop some.
Therefore, the volatility expected for now is exhausted.
The main point is a specific view for the rest of 2025.
Markets not only priced at the lack of a rate cut today, but they also prote to the lack of a cut in June. The most important thing, however, is the current positioning of three cuts of 25 points basis from July to December, which does not mean a bull.
From more on The Trump Tariffs Inflation should increaseIf they are not removed or scaled as soon as possible, it is likely that the Fed will go to a wait-and-see mode regarding rate cuts, at least until the issue clarifies. In theory, there is a time before July to clarify it, but it is not guaranteed. Moreover, it is uncertain to clarify with a scaling down of tariffs.
More optimistic market situations
The Nansen report state na The market prices in the market have become more optimistic. It also features how technical data favors BTC in stocks.
According to what Aurelie Barther Writing on the Nansen Blog, the BTC is slowly rising again to the historic high, recovering the Altcoins.
So that it should be added that such scenario is also shared by other analysts, especially thanks to the success of the success of ETFs in the BTC area In recent weeks.
Also due to the USA, consumption slows down, but it still remains at a decent level, with disappearances that have not increased.
Moreover, markets are priced at a similar scenario, especially a lower risk of retreating in the USA and a higher appreciation of the more desirable macroeconomic results.
Barthere has written that markets in recent weeks have become less pessimistic, and even if the bull scenario should be approached with caution, finding additional upward catalysts, the flow of news from the USA has been better than that a few weeks ago.
However, further good news about developing trade negotiations is necessary to prove the Bull's scenario.
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The fed
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Barthere also emphasized that political pressure on the Fed Chairman has increased again, but that should not influence the FOMC's decision at rates.
In fact, inflation in the USA is too high, and there is still a risk of an increase due to Trump's tariffs, even in the case of a reduction by 40% for China and 10% for the rest of the world.
Moreover, the labor market is really cool, but it has not yet cracked, leaving the fed effectively with its hands tied.
Therefore, the central US bank will remain, awaiting more clarity on the impact of Trump's policies in the mix of inflation/growth.
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The ratio of BTC-USD
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The Nansen report has stated that BTC technical data remains good, with rapidly moving averages beyond slow moving averages, and in fact even Better compared to US stock markets.
It is rather harder to venture into predictions about altcoins, at least until we have additional confirmations in a bull scenario.
It seems that the crypto market is waiting for a restart, and it can only come from Bitcoin.
