Tesla’s EV rival Rivian warns Trump’s trade war means it will sell fewer of its American-made cars than expected

• Rivian warned It will not deliver between 40,000 and 46,000 vehicles in 2025, after delivering 51,600 last year, revising its previous directives. CAPEX expenses will also be $ 200 million more than expected. But a second consecutive quarter of gross profits helped by the sale of regulatory CO2 credits unlocks a crucial investment of $ 1 billion by the German partner Volkswagen.

The American automaker Rivian Rivian warned Tuesday that deliveries of its electric vehicles would decrease at least a tenth this year, blaming the president's world trade war for having reduced his advice.

The Tesla rival now plans to send 40,000 to 46,000 electric vehicles this year instead of 46,000 to 51,000 late FebruaryBefore the Trump administration begins to impose prices across the edge. Last year, Rivian delivered nearly 51,600 vehicles after just over 50,000 in 2023.

Annual spending would also be $ 200 million more than initially expected, capital expenses weighing $ 1.8 billion as prices increase the cost of purchasing new equipment.

“We are not immune to the impacts of global trade and the economic situation that we plan to have an impact on material costs, the availability of materials, capital expenses and the backdrop of the demand,” said CEO and founder RJ Scarenge to Investors when calling the profits of the first quarter.

SCARINGE was also Frank as to his inability to capitalize on Tesla Haemorraging customers, with vehicle deliveries to Elon Musk, down 13% in the first quarter. The April data in Europe show that sales volumes fall in the middle of an expired range, slow appetite for the upper version of the model refreshing and the own CEO division policy.

Impossible to capitalize on the change of Tesla to the new model y

Unfortunately for Rivian, not only does he not sell outside North America, but he only has the R1T and R1. The pick-up and its SUV of brothers and sisters, respectively, are positioned at a price generally much more than $ 75,000 in a high-end segment for more spacious and luxurious vehicles.

The segment where Tesla is the most vulnerable at the moment is the smallest crossover model Y which represents two cars in three that the brand sells in the world.

It is only in the first half of next year that Rivian can start to compete directly with Tesla's bestseller, with his next R2 from a similar sticker of $ 45,000.

“I couldn't be more excited for the launch of R2. Last week, I was driving an R2 prototype and the vehicle is simply incredible. ”

Even after his arrival, the volumes will however be retained, according to the finance chief Claire McDonough. She said that the Rivian factory in normal, Illinois, will execute its R2 mounting chain on a single quarter work for most of the year rather than a more optimal two -plated operation to guarantee that production is smooth.

The gross quarterly profit unlocks $ 1 billion in Volkswagen investment

Until then, Rivian's affairs are mainly in a managed stasis form.

“So, when it comes to compromise between the volume – to sell more units – aimed at leading towards increased profitability, we will be wrong [the latter],” hesaidCNBC, “recognizing that the significant volume step for us is delivered with the R2”.

The quarterly net loss of Rivian has shrunk at 48 cents per share, an improvement both sequentially on the 70 cents lost in the fourth quarter as well as the loss of $ 1.48 in the previous year.

Above all, the SCARINGE company generated $ 206 million more from the sale of Rivian vehicles than it cost to make them, marking its best result for a period of three months.

Better still, the achievement of two consecutive gross profit triggers triggers a marking Volkswagen investment of $ 1 billion that management plans to be in cash at the end of June.

Nevertheless, Rivian resorted to intelligent accounts around his regulatory CO2 credits to unlock this important injection of capital from his German partner.

Well -timed profits reserved during the sale of CO2 regulatory credits

The credits sold to car manufacturers who seek to comply with CO2 are an important contributor for all electric vehicle companies, included Tesla. Timing should be noted, however.

Last year, almost all of the $ 325 million in Rivian was behind, with $ 299 million reserved for the fourth and last quarter. This time, Rivian chose to record $ 157 million in credit immediately in the first quarter and, in doing so, keeping the sequence of raw profits alive long enough to collect VW investment.

“Management said about $ 300 million in credit income this year, but we have made it more weighted at the end of the year,” wrote UBS analysts in a note to customers after the results. “The ex -credits, the automatic gross margin were -8%.”

Without the revenues earned by selling regulatory credits, Rivian would not have been in the dark even on the basis of raw profits in the past six months. It is not at all a fact that this sequence can be maintained in the future either.

Indeed, Rivian only guides “modest” raw profit for 2025, suggesting a large part of the rest of the year when the company could be back in red.

This story was initially presented on Fortune.com