Singapore, April 29, 2025 / Prnewswire / – Htx deeptink is focused on exploring the global trends of Macro, major economic indicators, and major development throughout the crypto industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX Deeptink aims to help readers “Find an order in the chaos. “
This week, Bitcoin rose to $ 95,000 as President Trump signed a softer stance on tariffs, strengthening the market sentiment. However, the uncertainty around trade negotiations continues. With critical releases of economic data in reach, it can offer a short but significant liquidity window for crypto markets. In this edition of HTX Deeptink, Chloe (@Chloetalk1) From the HTX research break down the transfer of the macro landscape and outlines the major risks and opportunities for digital asset space.
Trump's Second 100 Day Agenda: Delivers Promises, Caught the next wave
In his first 100 days, President Trump quickly implemented several crypto steps, along with the refinement of the Stablecoin regulation framework and cutting government spending by Doge. Next, the White House will focus on the conclusion of trade agreements and promoting a Russian peace effort -ukraine, while forcing the “big, beautiful” package – which enabling major tax cuts, stable border security measures, and regulatory rollbacks – and securing the Senate Passing of the Fit21 Bill to provide a clear outline for our digital digital regulation.
The return to the past week's market: decoupling and major drivers
Last week, crypto markets initially decayed from US equality, driven by a weakening dollar, increased crypto allocations from traditional companies and financial institutions, which increased stablecoin issuance, and continued net flow to bitcoin etf -pushing bitcoin up to $ 88,000. Later, rhetoric was softened with tariffs from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bissenet strengthened emotions. However, as the signs of trade development are encouraging, the actual agreements remain moon, and the hard – line tariff hawks within the administration continue to provide significant influence, causing the basic uncertainty for the perspective.
Basic data in advance: short and medium term inflection points
The Macro calendar this week is important.
- April 30 @ 12:30 UTC: US Q1 GDP (expected 0.2-0.4%, down from 2.4%) and Core PCE (month-to-month: ~ 0.1%)
- May 2 @ 12:30 UTC: April Nonfarm Payroll (approximately 130k compared to 228k before) and unemployment rate (stable at 4.2%)
If the data shows the weakening of growth but the prevention of inflation, it will strengthen expectations at mid-year rate and likely to lift risk properties such as Bitcoin and Ethereum in the tandem. Conversely, if all the metrics exceed the forecasts, the rate-cut expectation may be delayed or the fears of rate rates are resurrected, driving the yield yields and the dollar higher and weighing the crypto market for a short time.
In extreme cases:
- Negative GDP + Job Losses → Panic Sell-Off, Rebound on Easing Bets
- Hot inflation + stalled growth → stagflation risks
Fed holds firmly: the “Self – Careful” behind a technically valid rate cut
To date, Fed's reserve balances have stood nearly $ 3.3 trillion, overnight reverse repos at $ 94 billion, and the general general account remains high – technical conditions allowed for a cutting rate. But in FY 2024, the Fed pays a $ 226.8 billion interest in reserves and RRP, while earning only $ 158.8 billion for wealth and MB, resulting in a $ 77.5 billion net loss. A 0.3 PPT rate cut will reduce the annual portfolio revenue by approximately $ 20 billion to $ 6.7 trillion of properties, expanding losses and collapse of remittances in the US Treasury. To maintain finance maintenance and political freedom, the Fed chose to change rates.
Liquidity Window and Tag -High Dangers: Timing of optimal entry
If this week's data is in line with a slowdown, it can offer a short window of liquidity as the funds rotate back to the crypto. However, once the debt ceiling is raised -probably from June to July -the Treasury ark will re -refill TGA up to $ 50-60 billion by the new bond issuance, which is draining the equivalent liquidity from the markets. Short term rates will increase, and risk possession will be subject to pressure; Historically, the Bitcoin and the wider market fell by about 5% -10% in the weeks following TGA rebuilding. Investors should therefore be capital in the early May window while the hearing for drainage of the tag -heat.
Outlook: Stay discipline, follow the trend
Against a backdrop of intersecting policy of catalysts and liquidity transfers, near the term tactics should focus on major data releases and the May's liquidity window, while longer attention centers are in the implementation of FIT21 and continue to adopt the BTC institution and other solana institutions. The next basic presence can appear under these dual tailwinds -it motivates the opportunity.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not generate any offer or request an offer or recommendation of any investment product.
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HTX research is the dedicated arm of the research by the HTX group, which is responsible for conducting in -depth analysis, comprehensive reports, and delivering expert tests to a wide spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
