Stars align for Bitcoin rally to $100K, but futures traders exercise caution — Here’s why

Key Takeaways:

• The BTC hit $ 97,900 due to increasing institutional investor demand, but futures pricing shows entrepreneurs are not confident in a prolonged rally.

• The dangers of macroeconomic and global trade tensions are bullish sentiment despite $ 3.6 billion in spot BTC ETF inflows.

• BTC options are pointless, suggesting large players expect upside down, but their caution maintains low in leverage use.

Bitcoin (BTC) exploded in a tight trading range between $ 93,000 and $ 95,600 on May 1, following six days of limited movement. Despite its highest prices at ten weeks at $ 97,930, the emotion remains neutral according to BTC derivatives indicators. This price action took place next to significant net inflows in the US spot exchange-traded bitcoin funds (ETF).

Some of the failures to traders may be linked to the ongoing contention of the global tariff, which begins to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin entrepreneurs remember that, despite growing interest from institutional investors, fear of an economic backbone may limit price performance. This concern reduces BTC's probability of up to $ 110,000 or higher than 2025.

The annual premium for two -month futures of Bitcoin remained between 6% and 7% last week, which remains within a neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, when Bitcoin trading near $ 95,000 and the Futures Premium was over 10%, the entrepreneurs' feelings were weakened. This data suggests that there is less optimization, or at least less convincing, to further price acquisitions to $ 100,000 and above.

Gold performance is the moderate bitcoin acquisitions

Some market participants point to the 20% gold rally, from $ 2,680 to $ 3,220, as a source of concern. Although Bitcoin has recently missed the Silver market's $ 1.8 trillion capitalization to be the seventh largest global tradable asset, Gold's Surge in a massive $ 21.7 trillion appreciation forgets this success. Investors are reminding that Bitcoin's strong relationship with the stock market has reduced the appeal of the “digital gold” narrative.

It is also likely that $ 3.6 billion in net inflows in the US Spot ETFS over the past two weeks has been driven by delta-neutral techniques. In this situation, the flows reflect Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for healing. Therefore, the direct impact on the price is limited, consistent with the moderate 5% benefit of Bitcoin during this time.

To determine if professional merchants are comfortable with Bitcoin around $ 97,500, it is advisable to check the BTC options market.

BTC 25% Delta Skew Metric options are currently close to its lowest level since Feb. It was marked with a sharp return from three weeks ago, when placed (sold) the options that have been exchanged with a premium.

Related: Bitcoin was unsure of the shrinkage of shrinkage, US-China's tariff conversation kicked

The Resilience of Bitcoin Derivatives favors BTC prices further

Generally, bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimization. Entrepreneurs usually expect additional price acquisitions, but bulls prevent the use of the action. Some may argue that this creates perfect conditions for a surprise surprise, especially since the recivatives of $ 74,500 on April 9 do not affect BTC derivatives.

The most important factor that influences bitcoin performance remains a commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue monitoring S&P 500 movements. While this environment can prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near term, BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly in favor of the bulls.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.