As a political calendar inch to 2026, Osun State found itself in the throes of a high-stake race management that promises to reinstate the political scene of southwestern Nigeria. In the midst of this non -binding drama are three main forces: the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke and his PDP allies; a divided but relentless APC, fighting internal coherence; And a growing choir from Osun West, which demands political justice through zone. What appeared from Titles is not just a contest for a chair, but a quarrel of ambitions, ideologies, and regional interests.
Governor Adeleke: The incumbent holding the fort
Governor Ademola Adeleke remains the most visible figure early in 2026. Fresh off a significant 2022 win, his camp is promoting confidence. Various groups, from the PDP's Osun West Chapter to market leaders and religious figures such as the Primate Ayodele, have openly endorsed its bidding for the second term. These endorsements painted a picture of a governor who combined support, even though he faced the incessant attack from the forces of the opposition.
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Exhibit 1: Subjects from headlines
Adeleke's team became strategic, removing rumors of APC avoidance and actively strengthening the PDP loyalty. His assistants and allies outlined him as a victim of destabilization plots, pointing fingers at figures such as APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje and the framing of opposition maneuvers as external interference. Adeleke's main interests are clear: secure a second term and influence the PDP's influence on a region that traditionally sinks between the parties.
APC: Fractured Dominance and the OyeTola Factor
The All Progressives Congress (APC), though not in power in the state, remains a powerful force, even a riddle with a righteousness. Former governor Gboyega Oyestola has emerged as the most talked about the APC, with repeated calls from party groups and local leaders urging him back to the ballot. A significant portion of the APC establishment viewed him as the Party's best opportunity in Osun's reclaiming.
Exhibit 2: Top keywords for each of the 5 recognized subjects
However, the road is unclear. The APC is riding in a controversy over Zone, whether to maintain the management candidate in the central oyestola zone or move it to the west. It created visible rifts to APC leaders. While some have asserted the principle of “right of first rejection” for Oyestola, others refused to impose the candidate and call for an open field. Former Party secretary, Iyiola Omisore, and now-defector Rauf Aregbesola has more complicated internal arithmetic, as their support bases can replace margins in a close election.
Osun West: A Zoning Crusade
Perhaps the most relevant and determined career voice came from the Osun West. After more than three decades without making a governor, stakeholders from this zone are intensifying requests for ticket tickets in their favor. Monarchs, indigenous groups, and professional unions have launched coordinated campaigns that encourage both major parties to give them a shot.
The West sees 2026 as a historical counting. For them, it's not just about representation, it's about fairness. Known names such as the ball oyebamiji, the National Inland Waterways Authority Boss floated, supported by careful groups that forced both the President Tinubu and Alhaji Abdullah Ganduje, chairman of the All Progressives Congress, to weigh on the zoning issue. If the APC or PDP fails to align these goals, it is in danger of avoiding an important voter bloc.
Third forces and political realignment
As the PDP and APC lead the headlines, third-party actors such as the NNPP are actively positioning themselves as viable successors. Their rhetoric, “Osun deserves better than Adeleke”, a sign of an attempt to ride the waves of unpleasant public and the elite. Avoiding Arelegbesola, in conjunction with the APC direction of his group's APC, also suggests possible alliances that can reshape the party's loyalty.
Osun 2026 is shaping up to be more than a two -race horse. It is a contest between continuity and disruption, middle dominance and west care, internal party loyalty and elite avoidance. Governor Adeleke is looking for a verification for his first effort. Strategic oyestola and APC want to redeem. Osun West demands justice. And fringe actors smell the opportunity.
The outcome will not only determine who is in charge of Osun but also a signal of the political behavior of the southwest at a post-Tinubu period. Stakeholders ignore the underlying regional waves and fissures of the party at their risk.
