- The Mexican peso weakens 0.48%, even if the Mexican labor market and commercial data surprises upside down.
- The ongoing tensions of US-China trade cloud feelings, limiting the potential of Peso.
- Traders Eye Mexico GDP, company confidence and PMI data production this week.
On Monday, Mexican peso weakened 0.48%for the US dollar, despite the Wall Street profits and the US Dollar Dex (DXY) decline by 0.64%. During this writing, the USD/MXN will trade at 7:58 pm after the daily lowest level of 19.47.
The market participants are still concerned about US trade policy. Previously, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said they would progress with some trade proposals, but that China's negotiations have not even begun. CNBC revealed that China demands that Trump and XI or assistants have no tariff approaches, despite our allegations.
Meanwhile, the Mexican Economic Document revealed labor market data, which showed that the economy would continue to create jobs during a continuous economic retardation. At the same time, the balance of trade in March was witnessed by the surplus, as exports exceeded imports, according to the data of the Nacional de Estadistica Y geografia (ing).
Although the data were further favored by the negative aspects of USD/MXN, traders do not want to buy insecurity about the US trade news.
The Mexican Economic Document has the number of first -quarter total volume products (GDP), in addition to April, the release of the company's trust and S&P Global Manufacturing PM data.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Mexican peso is depreciated despite posting specific data
- Mexican trade balance printed a surplus of $ 3.422 billion, exceeding $ 2.60 billion forecasts, which is 9.6% compared to February data.
- The unemployment rate dropped from 2.5% to 2.2% in March last month, 2.4% under the forecasts.
- Mexican economic activities expanded 1% in February, which is higher than 0.6%. On an annual basis, the activity fell to 0% -0.7%, which is better than expected.
- Economic data revealed during the week was in the first half of April in the reinstatement of inflation, it was revealed. The retail sale in February was lower than expected, showing a constant economic slowdown.
- Last week, Banxico Deputy Governor Omar Mejia Castelazo revealed that the economy has slowed down since 2023, he said in Washington.
- The Citi Mexican Expectation Survey shows that economists hope that Banxico would reduce their rate by 50 base points at the May meeting. Throughout the year, they project the main reference rate, which ends near 7.75%.
- In terms of the USD/MXN exchange rate, private analysts see an exotic pair of finishing 20.93 compared to 20.90. It is predicted to end with an inflation of 3.78% in 2025, with a main indicator of 3.80%, mostly aligned with a previous survey.
- The Mexican economy will be expected to increase by 0.2% in 2025, which is less than 0.3% in the previous study.
USD/MXN Technical Outlook: Mexican peso stays bullish because USD/MXN is less than 200-day SMA
The USD/MXN is tilted downwards after the 200-day simple moving average of 19.94, sponsored by the last few sequences to the annual downturn of 19.46. Although the sellers are responsible, they must print each day close to the latter, so that the couple could be ready to challenge 19.00 to the psychological level.
On the contrary, when USD/MXN climbs past the 200-day SMA, buyers could direct the exchange rate at 20.00. If it exceeds, the next step would be 20-day SMA at 20.15.
Mexican Peso Fuck
Mexican peso (MXN) is the most tradable currency among Latin -American peers. Its value is widely determined by the level of money from the Mexican economy, the Central Bank of the National Bank, the level of money transfers living in the state and even abroad, especially the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the decision of the near -field process – or the decision of some companies – is also considered to be relocated to the production capacity and supply chains closer to its home countries – also a Mexican currency catalyst, as the country is considered a key center in the American continent. Another Catalyst for MXN is oil prices because Mexico is the main exporter of goods.
Mexican central bank, also known as Banxico, the main purpose is to maintain inflation at a low and stable level (3%or near it, the center of the tolerance strip between 2-4%). For this purpose, the bank sets the level of interest rates. If inflation is too high, Banxico tries to tame it by raising interest rates, making households and business money more expensive, thus cooling demand and the entire economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive about the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they cause a higher yield, making national investors a more attractive place. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data publications are key to assessing the state of the economy and may affect the assessment of the Mexican peso (MXN). For MXN, a good Mexican economy based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high trust is good. Not only does this attract more foreign investment, it can encourage the Mexican Bank (Banxico) to increase interest rates, especially if this strength is accompanied by increased inflation. If economic data are weak, MXN is likely to be depreciated.
As a result of the resulting market, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to catch during risk periods or when investors perceive that the wider market risks are low and are therefore eager to deal with more risk investments. Contrary to MXN, MXN tends to weaken during market survival or economic uncertainty, as investors tend to sell higher -risk assets and flee to more stable secure parakes.
