Basic Points:
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Poor labor and consumer data are often preceded by bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to expect future stimulus programs.
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Work openings fell 7.2 million in March compared to the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit the lowest level since January 2021.
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If previous patterns are handling, Bitcoin can rally in mid-July and possibly reach $ 140,000 in October 2025.
Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major influence on cryptocurrency prices. Usually, Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins do not perform well when investors are afraid that work and consumer data are weakened.
According to a report by the US Labor Department Jolts released on April 29, the work openings in March approached their minimum level in four years. US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, below 7.5 million economists assessed. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, reaching the lowest point since January 2021.
Conditions of worsening up the chances that central banks will introduce economic stimulation measures, making the overall impact on cryptocurrency markets that are unsure. Usually, additional liquidity encourages investment in risk assets such as Bitcoin, as more capital flows into the economy.
Future expectations more than weak data in today's economic
The last time the US experienced a collapse of work openings and weakening consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. In the three months that followed, the price of Bitcoin moved between $ 53,000 and $ 66,000. Then, a 60% rally began in mid -October, pushing the BTC above $ 100,000. The final result was positive, but it took more than 105 days to show this impact on the cryptocurrency market.
Although these conditions may seem concerned at first, consumer's weaker labor and sentiment usually look backwards. Financial markets and companies are based on their decisions on expectations for future economic growth, rather than previous data. Also, improved emotions in crypto investors tend to come after there is some confirmation of better macroeconomic conditions. This explains why the 105-day lag is not uncommon.
Prior to 2024, a similar situation took place between January and June 2023, with a decline in the same data in the work market and consumer confidence. The next four months is difficult, as the price of Bitcoin fell 18% to $ 25,000. It took 115 days to recover the price at $ 30,500 in late October. However, the following two months are very positive, with BTC getting 45% to reach $ 43,900.
The last time in the past eight years when both the consumer's labor market and confidence suffered significantly between February 2020 and May 2020, after the implementation of Covid-19 lockdowns. This period was seen Bitcoin briefly dropped below $ 4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer integration period was expected before investors regained trust in crypto markets.
Related: Bitcoin acts like 'this value' store is' amid Trump's policy chaos: Nydig
Can Bitcoin hit $ 140,000 in October?
With the return of macroeconomic data, there is no significant impact on Bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, as its price increases from $ 8,900 to $ 10,600, a 20% gain. However, the next 60 days brought a wonderful 85% rally to $ 19,700. In the third times, the weaker data of the labor sentiment and consumer seemed to come before a rally at bitcoin prices.
While the time between the lowest point of economic conditions and the Bitcoin rally ranges from 105 to 130 days, the result is clear in all three cases. Therefore, if job openings in the US and consumer confidence will improve from April 2025, it is likely that the price of Bitcoin will begin to rise in mid -July. If history repeats itself, this may mean a minimum target of $ 140,000 in October 2025, but further positive macroeconomic data is required to confirm this perspective.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be done as legal or investment advice. The views, attitudes, and opinions expressed here are unique and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of the cointelegraph.
