Kazakhstan continues to produce significantly more oil than agreed and probably do not intend to reduce production in May, says Carsten Fritsch, a commercial analyst at Commerzbank.
Saudi Arabia may increase the strong petroleum production
“According to the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, daily production, including condensates, is likely to reach 277 thousand tons in May, at the same level as in April. In March, production was 260 thousand tons per day. April and May production corresponds to good 2 million barrels a day.”
“Condensates make up about 260 thousand barrels a day, which means that crude oil production is likely to be about 1.75 million barrels per day. Therefore, about 300 thousand barrels per day would exceed the agreed ceiling, unless compensating cuts are taken into account.”
“This increases the risk that Saudi Arabia is also pushing for a strong increase in petroleum production in July. As a result, the negative risks of oil prices are increasing.”
