Japan hesitates between old rival China and old friend America as Trump tariffs upend alliances

Just as the first Japan commercial negotiator went to Washington for another series of price talks last week, a bipartite delegation named the name of “Japan-China Friendship” concluded a visit to Beijing.

A week earlier, the chief of the Junior Party of the Japan power coalition was in Beijing, delivering a letter from the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addressed to Chinese President Xi Jinping. The details of the letter are unknown, but the two parties discussed American rates in addition to the bilateral problems.

Among all the American allies courted by Beijing in its price looking with Washington, Japan stands out.

This is a special case not only forhis solid commitment to his allianceWith the United States but also for its complicated history and uncomfortable with the neighboring Asian giant – in particularThe history of the 20th century warThis always throws a shadow on today's politics.

“On the one hand, they are neighbors and they are important economic partners. There are a lot of links with Japan and China, “said Matthew Goodman, director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics of the Foreign Relations Council. “But on the other hand, I think there are limits how far they will look in China.”

While Japan will not move away from its alliance with the United States, the pavement of diplomacy and security policies in the Asian country, “it is also true that the prices and the uncertainty that Trump has created for Japan really shakes in Tokyo,” said Goodman.

Last month, President Donald Trump announced a price of 24% on Japanese productsA radical plan to perceive the tasksOut of approximately 90 countries. The White House has sincemade a price breakBut a reference duty of 10% on all countries except China, allowing a time for negotiations. Yet Trump25% aluminum tax, steelAnd automobile exports have entered into force for Japan.

The prices move, as well as Trump's “America First” agenda, have thrown doubts among the Japanese if the United States is still a reliable ally, whileChina will join supportCountries threatened with prices – including Japan.

In Beijing, Japan sees positive signs

When Tetsuo Saito led the Japanese Komito Party delegation to Beijing at the end of April, China alluded to its difficulty in its tariff dispute with the United States, signaling its desire to improve links with Tokyo. An senior Chinese official without name said that his country was “in difficulty” when he discussed the 145% price of Trump on Chinese products, according to Japanese reports.

Saito's visit was quickly followed by that of the bipartite delegation of the Union of Friendship Parliamentarians in Japan-China. Zhao Leji, the best legislator in Beijing, told the delegation that the National Congress of the Chinese people would be “willing to carry out various forms of dialogue and exchanges”.

Beijing has not raised a ban on Japan seafood imports as the Japanese delegates hoped, but he reported positive signs on its evaluation of the safety of treated radioactive wastewater discharges from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. BeijingProhibition of Japan seafood productsIn 2023, citing these concerns.

The links between Tokyo and Beijing have long been rocky. In recent years, they have clashed not only on the ban on seafood but also for a long timeTerritorial districts on the Senkaku Islands, or Diaoyu,In the Eastern China Sea, the growing military affirmation of Beijing andViolence against Japanese nationals in China– A problem complicated by history uncomfortable of nations.

TokyoCloser links with WashingtonDuring the presidency of Joe Biden, also upset Beijing, who saw him as part of the American strategy to contain China and gave conferences to Tokyo to “cope squarely and reflect on the history of the attack”.

Imperial power in Asia for centuries, China has lagged behind in Japan in the 19th century when Japan began to adopt Western industrialization and has become a formidable economic and military power. He invaded China in the 1930s and controlled the northeast territory known as Manchuria. War atrocities, including the Nankin massacre and the use of chemical and biological weapons and human medical experiences in Manchuria,have left deep scars in China. They have not yet been healed, although the conservative politicians in Japan today are still trying to deny the attack.

Ishiba, elected Japanese Prime Minister in October, has a more neutral opinion on the history of the war of her country than the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his two successors. A few weeks after taking office, Ishiba had talks with Xi on the sidelines of a summit of leaders.

Chinese scholars, however, see the recent commitments from Tokyo with Beijing as a pragmatic decision to shake against American protectionism and not as a long -term stability strategy with China.

Chances are low for Japan to go to Chinese orbit, said Goodman. “They had to manage an important but difficult relationship for a long time with China,” he said. “And it is, once again, a long -standing problem for Japan, going up centuries or millennia.”

Search for pricing offers and stable links in the United States

Although Japan can accommodate the more friendly tone of Beijing, he tries to stabilize relations in Japan-US as part of Trump's “America First” agenda, and he hopes to settle the tariff dispute without facing Washington, with a view to preventing Beijing from exploiting the benefits in relations in Japan-US.

Japan was among the first countries to organize pricing talks with Washington. During the first round in mid-April, Trump inserted himself in the discussions, signs high issues for the United States to conclude an agreement with Japan. The Trump administration would have prompted Japan to buy more cars made in the United States and open its market to American beef, rice and potatoes.

After the second negotiation cycle in Washington last week, Ryosei Akazawa, the country's tariff chief, said that he had pushed Japan's request that the United States abandoned the prices and pursued efforts to an acceptable agreement from both parties. He said the Japanese automotive industry was already harming 25% and that it should be “meticulous but fast”.

Asked about China, Akazawa only said that his country continued to look at the American-Chinese pricing development “with great interest”. He noted the deep business ties of Japan with China.

Competition in Southeast Asia

While China and Japan are trying to repair the ties, the two also participate in the Southeast Asian region, where Trump has also threatened with high prices. The region is deeply integrated into the China supply chain, but under pressure from the West to diversify and reduce its dependence on China. With younger and growing populations compared to East Asia, the region is considered an important growth center.

Japan, as a major post-war development aid, has gradually found confidence in the region, which has also been marked in the Japanese world in the Second World War.

Wednesday, Ishiba returned from Vietnam and the Philippines after agreeing with their leaders to further strengthen security and economic ties. During the visit, Ishiba underlined Japan’s commitment to maintain and strengthen a multilateral free trade system in each country. Ishiba also had telephone interviews with her Malaysian and Singaporean counterparts earlier this month on American prices.

A few weeks earlier,XI was in Vietnam, Malaysia and CambodiaAlso highlighting free trade and looking for stronger supply chains.

During a recent discussion at the Washington-based reflection group, Hudson Institute, Itsunori Onodera, party leader in Japan, warned “very unstable” feelings among many Asian countries confronted at high prices in the United States.

“There is a danger that they could become more distant and get closer to China,” said Onodera. “It's not something that Japan wants either.”

This story was initially presented on Fortune.com