Why product managers need to think about the first win.
We are launching. We won. We smiled.
And then, something that is unchanged. Support the queues spike. Users are confused. The teams point to the fingers.
That's exactly what the second order is.
This is a mental model that needs to be in every PM handbook. Not to break the party, but to make sure it doesn't end in chaos.
Here's how I explained this to my team:
This is the effect of ripple. Focused only on what can go wrong.
Not only what breaks into the code, but what to break because Someone worked well. It is a survival skill. This is the thing that most people don't make time until late.
Let's make time now.
The feature to make a car cheaper than coffee
Sometimes we worked with an OEM who wanted automatically discount on the results of the vehicle search. It seems harmless. Show cheaper prices, attract clicks.
Problem lang?
The price of math has become unique. Really weird.
Combine high -payment logic logic – suddenly, an expensive vehicle looks cheaper than a latte.
We need to send a payment target to a hotfix in a week.
Hotfixes mean lower trial scope. It means bugs. This means fire drills.
Yes, we finally built a feature that we wanted to drag our feet.
No, that's not the plan.
You get the picture. A small change. Large ripples.
The CMU project that is almost that -backfired
Back to Grad School, we were designing a relief system with Eaton for Puerto Rico.
Idea: Pedal -powered fridges. Low tech, high value. Preserves fresh food. Keeps the children seize.
We then hit the session where we asked, “What can go wrong?”
Turns – pedal children, burn calories, starve.
Low food. Supply chains have been damaged.
And now, our solution exacerbates the main problem.
We put it on. It hurts, but right.
Thinking of the second order saved us from delivering a feeling that was a good catastrophe.
The standup spiers
Early on my management journey, I thought it would be fun (and the benefit) to rotate who ran into our day -to -day standups.
The idea: Everyone remains engaged, and junior PMs get a low leadership leadership.
The fact: six versions of both meeting, and zero pare -same.
Some keep it short. Some have added new questions. Some are forgotten in full.
Updates are scattered. People followed DMS. Some blockers are completely missed.
The whole thing slows us down more than the combined -with us.
This is not a catastrophe. But it did something that should develop the alignment that will quietly erase it.
That's Ripple.
A small decision, made of good intentions, which led to confusion, breakup, and a group of “Have we talked about it?” Wait a minute.
Even small rituals hold systems together. It would mess with them without clarity, and you messed up everything around them.
The project I am now
Today, I'm in the middle of a massive client launch. There are many projects running in parallel, each with its own deadlines, dependencies, and mini fires. Dropped the team's head. The end line is near.
But here's a part that no one wants to think about: what happens next?
If this launch is properly launched, use the use. This means more support tickets. There are many more questions. More operational strains. The internal team needs to take the next stage. But do they still know that?
No post-launch plan. There is nothing clearly with -owner. There is no stability of stability. And that's the problem. When you run it quickly, the risk of second-order is not just likely. It's guaranteed.
So, here's what we're pushing for:
- Determining processes to support the client. Not just a handoff doc, but a real support system. The one that aligned with teams around onboarding, ticket triage, and customer success flows.
- The construction of a PMS pod responsible for this client. Because “who owns what is next” should not be a mystery. This pod is the future spine of expanding the platform. They will know the client, the product, and the pressure.
- Receiving difficult reality: If people do not use it, we are already -screwed. Adoption is not optional. This is just the validation that is important. If we do not plan to change behavior, we will explain the metrics instead of celebrating them.
- Bake platform impact on each feature from here to. It's not just launching. This is a system. Each new build touches other systems, workflows, and people. The features do not live in the silos – nor the roadmaps.
It's not about being dramatic. It's about dealing with what happens when you succeed.
If success is the only thing you are planning, you set yourself up to be blinded by your own wins.
Use this blueprint (literally!)
You don't need a doc strategy. You need a ripple check.
Blueprint Name: Ripple radar
FOCAL POINT:
Start with the decision. A new feature. A policy shift. A strategic stake.
Feature or layer of implementation:
- What are the clear changes in the interface or workflow?
- If this is a feature: what changes of screens, steps, or flows?
- If this is a company's decision: what duties, rituals, or rules change?
User layer or stakeholder:
- What new behavior, confusion, or reaction can show?
- What do customers or end users expect?
- What do internal teams assume, adopt, or fight?
Org layer:
- Who owns the follow-up? The Fallout? The mess?
- Which team needs to respond, measure, explain, or defend it?
- Are handoffs identified or left at the opportunity?
System layer:
- What platforms of flow, flow, or metric hit?
- Where are the dependencies ruined?
What future plans have to move?
You can run any feature, launch, or approach decision through this outline. Assign owners to each layer on your pre-launch, pre-rollout, or leadership meeting.
Make it part of your product rituals.
Use it in leadership tests.
Use it when someone says, “Let's try it and look at it.”
Because the effect of ripple is already happening. You haven't been able to handle it yet.
Want to sound like a leader? Start the sound of paranoid
Not about launch.
About what happens because The launch worked.
Conclusion
The second-order thought is not negativity.
It's about building a part of the system you've never met.
You do not win by avoiding frustration. You won by waiting for it.
That's the job. That is the leadership of the product.
