In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced a significant breakthrough, encouraging optimism among traders and pushing expectations towards the possible extent of a psychological threshold $ 100,000To. However, as the month approaches, some analysts want caution, recalling the old saying in the financial markets: “Sell in May and go away.”
This expression, from the early years of the London Stock Exchange, recommends selling its positions in May and then entering the markets in the fall, as there is a historical tendency to weaker performance during the summer months. Although originally referring to traditional stock markets, this seasonality seems to reach the world of cryptocurrencies, Including bitcoinTo.
Meaning “Sell in May and go away”: Stay for the competition for $ 100,000 for Bitcoin?
The saying “Sell in May and Go away” is based on historical data showing how US stock markets tend to register lower revenue from May to October, compared to the November-April period. The reasons are various: Lower trading volumesTo do, Less institutional activityand the overall decrease in volatilityTo.
According to BTSE COO Jeff Mei, historically, the financial markets have been weak, many investors follow the proverb. “But Mei points out that this year may be an exception, considering that Bitcoin has already reached $ 97,000 And some growth shares show signs of recovery. Nevertheless, recent data US GDP shows the potential risk of recession that the potential may alleviate cutsTo.
Bitcoin and Seasonality: What Data Say
The cryptocurrency market seems to be affected by this seasonal dynamics. In accordance CoingLass dataTo do, Bitcoin has often shown weak or negative performance in May In recent years:
- In 2021BTC lost 35%, noting one of the worst months of the year.
- In 2022was a 15%decline due to the collapse of the Luna ecosystem.
- In 2023The moon was flat or slightly positive, with volatility.
There have been exceptions: in the year May 2019Bitcoin rose by 52%, one of the best shows after 2018. But the negative months are often followed in June: in the last five years Four out of five of June was closed with redTo.
These data do not guarantee future performance but refer to it The cryptocurrency market becomes more and more sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and seasonalityLike traditional stock markets.
Altcoin and meme coin: greater vulnerability
In addition to Bitcoin, altcoin – Especially meme coins – may also be exposed to corrections in the coming months. After the first quarter, characterized by euphoric demonstrations often facilitated by speculative currents, investors may pay attention to a more stable asset, leaving room for space significant retreatTo.
Vugar USi Zad said the exchange cooo Bitget“Since 1950, the S&P 500 has increased by 1.8% from May to October, with only 65% of the positive revenue.” These data, although referring to the stock market, are useful to understand how Seasonality can also affect the feelings of investors cryptocurrencyTo.
Quarter Performance: A wider picture
Analyzing the quarterly performance of Bitcoin over the past 12 years, there are still interesting knowledge:
- Its Another quarter (April-June) registered an average yield of 26%but the median was only 7.5%, indicating a strong Volatility driven by exceptional eventsTo.
- In Third quarter (July-September)The average falls to 6%, with a slightly negative median that refers to the phase consolidation or post -sleds fatigueTo.
Zade emphasizes that ** fourth quarter (October-December) ** Historically represents Bitcoin's strongest period, with an average return of 85.4% and a median 52.3%. It strengthens the idea that May may indicate the beginning of temporary weakness phaseBefore possible in the autumn recovery.
Market psychology and self -filling predictions
Even if the Wall Street Calendar does not dictate the cryptocurrency rules, the psychology of the investor Plays a crucial role. If enough traders begin to believe in the validity of sales in May, this behavior could become a self -filled predictionEmphasizing sales and fluctuations.
In addition if technical signals Beginning and reversing the proverb can gain even more power by driving further sales and consolidation.
An insecure scenario but not without opportunities
In summary, while enthusiasm for Bitcoin ** 100,000 dollars ** is growing, historical data and seasonality refer to a cautious approach. The word “sells in May and disappear”, although it comes from a completely different context, even seems to be in the world of cryptocurrencies.
With an increase in institutional participation and integrating crypto markets into global macroeconomic cycles, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are no longer immune to seasonal dynamicsTo. For investors, this means the attentive monitoring of data, avoiding euphoria and considering more sophisticated risk management strategies in the following months.
