There is a hypothesis that shifts -move about the trend of Bitcoin Price in the coming months predicting a 50% increase.
This hypothesis is based on the review of History trendand especially in repeating a Pattern That in the past has actually led to an increase of 50%.
If this pattern is to repeat itself this year as well, the price of BTC may be towards $ 150,000.
The historical pattern of bitcoin price
The key to recognizing this pattern is the similarity of the three events that take place in the USA: a Low finance, Retail sales that are higher than expectedand Aggressive signals from the central bank In the financial policy.
These are the data about the economy and finances of the USA, and are linked to parameters such as price inflation, interest rates, and the level of action in the speculative market.
In the past, there was at least Three identical situationsone of July 2021one second at the beginning of 2023and the latter at the beginning of 2024and every time this situation led to the rising price of bitcoin exceeded 50%.
In July 2021, an increase began equal to 76%While at the beginning of 2023 it is slightly above 50%. At the beginning of 2024, even above 80%.
Will the past happen again?
In July 2021 the Annual Bitcoin funding rate was very low (almost 0%), with retail sales data in the USA better than expected. In addition, a speech by the Fed president in the economic symposium at Jackson HoleIn August, the markets led to consider the reduction of QE possible.
So both of the above conditions occurred. The price of Bitcoin from July to September recorded a strong increase, creating this pattern.
Even in January 2023, the annual Bitcoin funding rate was low, even higher than 0%. In addition, retail sales data is better than expected, and the Fed Chairman suggested a strict financial policy to counter inflation during a speech in Sveriges RIKSBANK.
In this case too, all three common conditions of this pattern took place, and the BTC price ended significantly.
Finally, in January 2024, the annual rate of funding of Future perpetui was low (4%), and retail sales data in the USA exceeded market expectations. In addition, the President of the Fed has stated that the Central Bank does not cut interest rates, thus maintaining financial policy restriction.
The current situation
Currently, the annual rate of funding of eternal futures in Bitcoin is in line with January 2024, if not even lower.
Moreover, in March, the Monthly sale sale in the USA is slightly above expectations, but higher than the average of the past twelve months. However, it should be noted that the single March data is influenced by the implementation of Tariffsthat led many Americans to concentrate on March purchases they planned to make in the following months. In fact, it is hoped that in April there will be a sharp decline, but this very descriptive forecast can lead to actual results better than expected.
The real problem is the financial policy of FedBecause for the emergence of the pattern mentioned above, negative signals will be needed in that sense.
Rather, markets are widely expected that the Federal Reserve Will not cut rates in May, even starting to be consensus around a hypothetical cut in June.
Therefore, it seems difficult for markets to be surprised in the short period of more negative signals than expected, also because at the moment it does not make sense to think that the Fed may increase rates in May.
However, in the event that during the press conference at May 7 Powell should indicate that they do not intend to cut rates in June, as the market expects, the third condition may also occur.
The forecast on the price of bitcoin
To tell the truth, it is not certain that if all three conditions of this pattern take place again, the price of the BTC will need to increase dramatically.
In fact, the price of bitcoin price really does not depend on those three conditions, and in general, in the medium/lasting, it tends to follow the course of Dollar Index (DXY).
However, it remains absolutely possible to Medium-Short term Things will be exactly this way, because also thanks to a especially the low dxy In recent weeks, the BTC has shown clear signs of well -known strength, which interferes with the denial that began in February.
Perhaps the potential emergence of the pattern talked about during this period could act as a Trigger for a rebound actually caused by a Particularly weak dollarsEspecially if such a weakness is to intensify while, for example, the month of May.
