INdia and Pakistan have been in dispute in the Kashmir area over the years after the last week's deadly attack. Increased tensions are unlikely to lead to war, but the world should worry about the serious escalation risks caused by two nuclear enemies.
On April 22, fighters attacked tourists who had a picnic in the picturesque meadow near Halgam, Kashmir, India. About 26 people – 25 Indians and one Nepali – shot. New Delhi accusation Pakistan for sponsoring a massacre. Islamabad has denied any participation. The front of the obstacleThe clothing that New Delhi looks at the Pakistan jihadist group as a credentials of Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially demanded responsibility for Telegram retrospective the requirement.
Both India and Pakistan are in the Muslim-Majority area, which are partially controlled by India and Pakistan, but both claim it as a whole.
On Sunday Indian Express quoted The anonymous “main source of the Indian government” warned “the military for revenge”. Wednesday Pakistan Information Minister wrote on X In a rare late evening post, his government had “reliable intelligence” that India would take military measures within 24-36 hours.
This deadline passed without incident. Also older Indian and Pakistani military officials allegedly Contributed through a hint line that indicates that communication channels are open. Meanwhile, the main global capitals, including Washington and Bekinghas required escalation. It is a posture that puts an Indian that wants a free hand to respond to an attack as he wanted, behind the foot.
However, it would be a mistake to conclude that the worst is over. The Hargam attack was extraordinarily brutal, many people were shot on the head, filling styleTo. Civilians (much fewer tourists) are rarely directed in Kashmir and allegedly Hindu victims were was chosen for their faithTo. The tragedy has been nervous throughout India, from the public to the military and government officials.
For these reasons, India's military activity is still a strong opportunity. The Indian Hindu government may suffer major political damage when it sits on its hands, especially after it has repeatedly telegraphed its decision.
When the Indian trigger is pulled, Pakistan's answer is all but certain. The Pakistanians are furious for being accused of something horrible, believing that their country had nothing to do with. (Pakistan has historically supported Kashmir extremist actors, but New Delhi has no evidence of Pakistan's accompanying participation in the recent attack). The state considers the Indian strike an unjustified provocation. Pakistan's civil and military leadership is also unpopular at home; The attack would give Islamabad a further incentive to be defeated and rallying citizens around the flag.
And the diplomatic space between the two countries is shrinking. India and Pakistan have suspended two main bilateral contracts: Indus Waters Agreementcross -border water agreement; and Simla Agreementwhich requires a peaceful resolution of disputes.
Fortunately, nuclear weapons are still a deterrent. India and Pakistan fought all their hot wars before they became an official nuclear power in 1998. However, in recent years, they have been quite comfortable to use a higher level of strength against each other. In 2016, Indian commandos crossed Kashmir, Pakistan's administration to organize “surgical strikes“About military targets. In 2019, after an attack in Indian administrated in Kashmir, which was claimed by the Pakistan jihadist group Jaish-e-Mohammed, killed 40 Indian security forces, India passed through India through India air strikes In Pakistan's territory – the first since 1971. Pakistan scrambled fighter jets and two air force before the end of the crisis dealt with a dog fight.
Faced with their reality, New Delhi can choose hidden activities – such as Pakistani fighters' purposeful murders – which enable him to achieve tactical goals with plausible denial. India can also take a stronger step in Pakistan's military groups to meet the public demand.
The new Delhi is definitely not going to create a hot war. However, all false or miscalculations on both sides may mean that all stakes are off.
