- Gold earns almost 2% as tensions in the Middle East and indisputative American commercial measures.
- The demand for package assets increases as the US dollar weakens before the Fed's decision.
- The XAU / USD momentum remains firm, although the technical signals indicate a possible consolidation.
Gold (XAU / USD) increased sharply on Tuesday, supported by a convergence of geopolitical conflicts, a uncertainty of commercial policy and a defensive of investors before the decision of interest rate of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday and the press conference of the president of Jerome Powell.
At the time of writing the editorial staff, gold is negotiated about $ 3,396 per OCE, up 1.90% during the day and 4.5% over the week, while investors are looking for refuge in global risks and an American dollar (USD).
Geopolitical and commercial concerns increase
The gold rally reflects the deepening of the global discomfort. The expansion military campaign of Israel in Gaza, associated with an activity increased by the militias supported by Iran in Iraq and Syria, has increased the risk of a broader regional conflict. These developments have considerably aggravated the feeling of risks in the financial markets, strengthening the demand for defensive assets.
At the same time, the commercial tensions evolved. The announcement by American president Donald Trump of 100% prices on foreign films, alongside restrictions offered on pharmaceutical imports, has rekindled fears of a broader world trade conflict. These measures have already aroused a response from the European Commission, which is preparing reprisals targeting American technology and consumer goods.
For markets, the economic consequences are important: pressure on costs, disturbed supply chains and growing uncertainty – which support all gold as a cover against systemic stress. Merchants react with increased coverage, an increase in demand for the protection of volatility and a renewal of flows in defensive paradise, in particular gold, Japanese yen and American treasury.
Wider global risks and Fed positioning in the accent
Political instability in Europe adds to the risk premium. In Germany, electoral losses for the ruling coalition have triggered internal leadership challenges, fueled the speculation of the first federal elections and raising concerns about the cohesion of euro zone policies.
Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Washington for high -level interviews with President Trump. Although it does not move directly to gold, Reunion highlights the broader context of global diplomatic fragmentation and the divergence of policies, which are both increasingly relevant for safety flows.
Prospects for the federal reserve: no change expected, but the language is important
Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) should not change interest rates during Wednesday's political meeting, the tone for its directives in advance will be crucial. Merchants will examine the comments of President Jerome Powell for any signal on the question of whether an evolution towards rate reductions is later under discussion in 2025.
The absence of bellicine rhetoric would probably reinforce the current gold trajectory, as the expectations of lower interest rates would reduce the opportunity cost of the holding of uninformed assets. Conversely, any decline in Powell, in particular if he signals concerns about the reaggeration of inflation, could trigger a re -evaluation of interest rates and weigh on short -term gold.
Today's pre-reunion positioning is obvious in the fixed money and income markets. The US dollar index (DXY) fell to 99.50, while yields on 10 -year -old American treasury bills soften, both supporting gold prices. For merchants, this environment requires prudence: large intraday oscillations are possible following the Fed communications, especially if Powell surprises the market.
Technical perspectives in gold: the rupture of XAU / USD is maintained, but the increase can stall almost $ 3,423
Gold has resumed its upward trajectory, ending firmly above its 20-day mobile average (currently $ 3,275) and validating the recent rebound in the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% of the April move to $ 3,292.
The strong bullish candle reflects a renewed momentum, with $ 3,398 on Tuesday.
The current rally places immediate resistance at the Fibonacci trace level of 14.14% almost $ 3,423. If this is eliminated, the bulls can target the record level at $ 3,500, a level psychologically and technically significant.
The relative resistance index (RSI) is followed at 64, indicating a positive momentum without yet reaching extreme oozing conditions. This suggests that there is still room for additional short -term gains, although traders should monitor prices almost $ 3,423 for signs of exhaustion.
Lowering, the initial support is now reinforced by the 20 -day mobile average to $ 3,275. A rupture below that exposes the horizontal pivot area around $ 3,202 and the wider support of the trend line close to $ 3,167 – levels that could attract drop buyers if the feeling of risk improves.
XAU / USD daily table
FAQ GOLD
Gold played a key role in the history of man because it was widely used as a reserve of value and means of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and its use for jewelry, precious metal is largely considered as an asset in Houmle, which means that it is considered a good investment at the turbulent time. Gold is also widely considered as coverage against inflation and the depreciation of currencies because it was not based on a specific transmitter or government.
Central banks are the biggest gold holders. In their objective of supporting their currencies at the turbulent time, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy gold to improve the perceived force of the economy and money. High gold reserves can be a source of confidence for the solvency of a country. The central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth around $ 70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to World Gold Council data. This is the highest annual purchase since the start of the files. The central banks of emerging savings such as China, India and Turkey quickly increase their gold reserves.
Gold has an opposite correlation with the US dollar and American treasury vouchers, which are both the main security and security assets. When the dollar depreciates, gold tends to increase, allowing investors and central banks to diversify their assets on turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A stock exchange on the stock market tends to weaken the price of gold, while sales in the risky markets tend to promote precious metal.
The price can evolve due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly degenerate gold prices because of its security status. As an without efficiency, gold tends to increase with lower interest rates, while the cost of higher silver generally weighs the yellow metal. However, most movements depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is assessed in dollars (XAU / USD). A strong dollar tends to maintain the price of controlled gold, while a lower dollar is likely to raise gold prices.
