- The Sterling book extends gains as the American trade balance and the price impact weigh on the dollar.
- The markets expect Fed to hold and that Boe cuts 25 bps this week; 75 BPS of relief views of the two in 2025.
- The GBP / USD reaches 1.3402 Intraday high as British markets reopen and the feeling of risk improves.
The Sterling book has advanced for the second consecutive day, earning more than 0.65% compared to the US dollar in the middle of a rare economic file on both sides of the Atlantic. The main central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BOE) are preparing for their political meetings. At the time of writing the editorial staff, the GBP / USD is negotiated at 1.3381 shy from the 1.34 bar.
GBP / USD act in the middle of light data, expanding the American trade deficit and growing bets on the softening of the synchronized central bank
US trade news has continued to make the headlines. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States is negotiating with 17 trade partners but not yet with China. He said some transactions could be announced during the week.
With regard to data, the American trade deficit was widened in March, stimulated by imports of goods by companies before the effect of the promulgation of the prices of US President Donald Trump. The US trade department has revealed that the balance of exchanges amounted to -140 billion dollars more than the -137 billion dollars expected and exceeded the printing of -123.2 billion dollars in February. Reuters revealed that “imports from China were however the lower in five years and could drop more, Trump increased his functions on Chinese products to 145%.”
After the data, GBP / USD extended its upward trend, reaching a daily top of 1.3402 while the British markets reopened during a long weekend party.
Traders are preparing for Fed, BOE meetings
On Wednesday, the federal reserve should maintain the unchanged prices, but traders will be conferred by Jerome Powell of the president of the presidency of Jerome Powell. A day later, the Bank of England (BOE) is planned to reduce the rates of 25 basic points (BPS), giving the Fed the upper hand on the interest rate differential.
However, interest rates parity should remain unchanged for the whole year. The markets assess 75 basis points of flexibility by the Fed, the same amount as the BOE.
GBP / USD price forecasts: technical perspectives
The GBP / USD upward trend remains in place, but a possible head and shoulder graphic model is imminent because buyers seem to lose steam when approaching the major 1.34. A daily fence above the latter could sponsor a remediation of the highest of the year for an appointment (YTD) of 1,3443, canceling the “head and shoulder” graphic model.
Conversely, if the GBP / USD tumbles under 1,3300, search for a test of the last swing given on May 5 at 1.3257. If it is erased, it could be the first sign of confirmation of the “head and shoulders” and open the way to test the lower prices. Immediate support would be 1,3,200, followed by the 50 -day simple mobile average (SMA) at 1.3030.
British book Prize this week
The table below shows the percentage of variation in the British book (GBP) against the main currencies listed this week. The British book was the strongest against the US dollar.
| USD | Eur | GBP | Jpy | Goujat | Aud | Nzd | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.81% | -1.29% | -0.16% | -0.50% | -0.91% | -0.22% | |
| Eur | 0.12% | -0.42% | -0.92% | 0.23% | -0.10% | -0.52% | 0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.81% | 0.42% | -0.73% | 0.64% | 0.31% | -0.11% | 0.59% | |
| Jpy | 1.29% | 0.92% | 0.73% | 1.15% | 0.81% | 0.47% | 1.20% | |
| Goujat | 0.16% | -0.23% | -0.64% | -1.15% | -0.63% | -0.75% | -0.05% | |
| Aud | 0.50% | 0.10% | -0.31% | -0.81% | 0.63% | -0.42% | 0.29% | |
| Nzd | 0.91% | 0.52% | 0.11% | -0.47% | 0.75% | 0.42% | 0.69% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | -0.17% | -0.59% | -1.20% | 0.05% | -0.29% | -0.69% |
The thermal map shows the percentage of variations in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen in the left column, while the quotes motto is chosen in the upper row. For example, if you choose the British left column book and go along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage of variation displayed in the box will represent the GBP (base) / USD (quote).
