The main inflation tool of the Federal Reserve stopped moving in March, destroying this almost year of steady increases, according to data shared Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The index of personal consumption (PCE), the number closest to the Fed watch, was flat last month compared to February. Removing food and energy, the core PCE also does not move. This is the softest reading since 2019.
However, consumer spending does not slow down. Suitable inflations jumped 0.7% in March, with the number of February also falling higher. This means that people spend a lot of time – probably trying to bestocking up before the latest wave of Donald Trump's tariffs holds and raises costs mostly.
Buyers spend ahead of tariffs as GDP contracts
The march Report Wrapped in a trembling quarter. The US economy revolves around 0.3% in the first three months of 2025 -the first backwards since the beginning of 2022. The retreat came with a massive spike in imports, which many companies rushed before the tariffs were completely kicked.
Meanwhile, Core PCE Inflation jumped at a 3.5% annual rate in Q1, the highest pace in one year, meaning prices were running hot before the March pause.
Wall Street doesn't love the news. The S&P 500 remained red. Treasury's produce yields. The dollar is all over the place. Everyone points to merchants trying to figure out what's coming next.
As it all fell, President Donald Trump went straight to the society to try and re -write the story. “It is [Joe] Biden's stock market, not Trump. I didn't happen until January 20th, ”Trump posted. Minute after the commercial department released GDP data, he threw around.
He kept going. “The tariffs are about to start to kick in, and the companies are starting to move to the USA with record numbers. Our country will soak, but we have to remove the 'overhang,'” Trump wrote. He added: “It will last, nothing to do with tariffs, only that he has left us a bad number, but when the boom starts, it will be like no one else. Be patient !!!”
Numbers do not agree. The 3.6% jump on PCE inflation throughout the quarter is from 2.4% gain in Q4 of 2024. Trump may say Boom is coming, but now, the data looks ugly. The pausing the march on inflation is just a quarter cut – and the rest of it is still burning.
Hurating the Slows, the stumbles of the market, Trump tried to recruit
Things worsened Wednesday morning when ADP published a private payroll report of April. Poor rent, with only 62,000 new jobs when Wall Street expects 120,000. It has been the slightest benefit of Payroll since July 2024 and a sharp fall from March's Soft 147,000, changed.
Investors have bail. Markets opened and remained there. Corporate revenues also do not help. The whole thing only hit a few hours before Trump was set to hold two dozen executive executives in the White House.
However, Trump keeps the brakes in the blame. On a Tuesday night of speech marked his 100th day back to the office, he claimed, “prices are coming down,” and said, “That's what I did.” The report came out less than 24 hours later said the opposite. Inflation did not fall. It is strongly increased. The federal reserve scale rose to 3.6%, did not go down. That's just Math.
Meanwhile, a group of economists points to Trump's tariff policy because the cause of confidence is separated. Companies are restrained. Buyers are afraid that prices will jump again. And work growth slows down because no one wants to take risks under vague trade policies.
Trump's way of dealing with the mess is to reject it. But that's not new. Back when the market was flying in 2023 and early 2024 – under Joe Biden – Trump has already credited. On January 29, 2024, he wrote: “This is Trump's stock market because my polls against Biden are so good that investors have been promoting that I will win.”
Now he is president again. The market is falling. The economy is diminishing. Inflation is running hot. But somehow, Biden was still a fault. Trump likes credit when things look good. He's gone from the blame list when things look bad.
Cryptopolitan Academy: closely – a new way to earn passive income with the defi in 2025. Learn more
