The fourth bitcoin in half finished about a year ago today. If you read the crypto news, everyone has predicted that the Bitcoin price is soaring.
However, in the six months that followed, the price of Bitcoin remained remarkably stable (excluding a few 15%swings, which are baby stages for Bitcoin). It was until the night of the American presidential election of 2024. The victory of President Trump increased the Bitcoin price more than $ 35,000 in less than four weeks, reaching a new summit of all time.
This raises the question: is Bitcoin mainly a technological asset that answers its own internal mechanics, or has it become something more politically loaded? The data suggests the latter.
When we look at the data from the ETF flows of the Amberdata intelligence platform, something interesting. The biggest entrance of a day in all Bitcoin ETF was not after the reduction in half. In fact, the reduction by half was fundamentally out of words. It was immediately after the 2024 elections.
ETFs saw entries exceeding $ 8 billion in a single day after the announcement of Trump's victory, overshadowing previous investment models. Money speaks stronger than stories. And since the elections, money has shouted that Bitcoin is political.
Half of half it was not
For years, the cryptographic community has worked under a simple premise: Bitcoin halvings lead to price explosions. Logic seemed to be sound. Every four years, the Bitcoin mining reward is half reduced, reducing a new offer on the market.
Fewer new offers with coherent or growing demand should be equal to higher prices. This is the model since the creation of Bitcoin. Half 2016 wandering preceded the legendary Bull Run 2017 which put Crypto on the map. Half of 2020 launched another massive price wave. But the reduction by half of 2024? Crickets.
Looking at the annual performance table of the Amberdata platform, the contrast could not be more severe. While 2017 showed a spectacular rise curve reaching almost 20 times the yields, and other years after the reduction displayed notable gains, 2024 was surprisingly flat after the event in half. Until November.
When political winds moved, the Bitcoin trajectory too. This was not supposed to happen according to the techno-deterministic vision of Bitcoin. Half reduction was supposed to be the catalyst, not an election. However, we are there.
The Trump effect
What makes the climb of a different post-electoral bitcoin is not only its timing but its character. It was no retail FOMO prices. It is not minors who hold their reduced awards. It was institutional money – massive capital flows and coordinated through regulated ETF products.
Flow graphics ETF tell the story. Blackrock, Fidelity, 21Shares, Grayscale and Bitwise have all seen unprecedented entries in the days that followed the elections. They are not crypto enthusiasts buying $ 500 Bitcoin on Coinbase. These are pension funds, allocations and financial advisers allocating billions. For what?
Because Trump's victory represented a fundamental change in the political positioning of Bitcoin. The expected approach of his administration with regard to the regulation of cryptography reported a spectacular gap in relation to previous political instructions. Suddenly, Bitcoin was not only a blanket against inflation. It was a bet on a specific political result and its consequences.
Bitcoin has always had libertarian foundations. The white paper of Satoshi emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, offering a monetary system without control of the Central Bank. But what we see now goes beyond theoretical political alignment.
Bitcoin has become a practical political asset – the one whose value is increasingly correlated with specific political results and partisan changes. Massive ETF entries did not only celebrate a friendly crypto president. They placed institutional bets on a specific vision of the economic future of America.
The one where traditional banking power centers could face new competition. One where regulatory approaches promote innovation to prudence. One where the balance between the state and the private monetary control moves considerably.
When we examine the data from Amberdata performance metrics, another model emerges. While previous halvations have triggered organic growth, progressive prices over several months, the overvoltage focused on elections was immediate and clear. It was not the technology that changed. It was the political landscape.
Investments in a polarized world
This Bitcoin transformation into a political asset has deep implications for investors. On the one hand, this suggests that traditional metrics on the chain and supply -based models can be less predictive than they used to be. The next Bitcoin Bull Run may not be triggered by an event in half, but by a mid-term election. Or a decision of the Supreme Court. Or a regulatory ad.
This politicization also raises questions on the construction of the portfolio. If Bitcoin is increasingly correlated with political results, does it still offer the same advantages of diversification? Bitcoin's outfit now represents not only a technological bet but a political bet but a nozzle?
For institutional investors who sail in this new landscape, data tools become even more crucial. Understand not only price movements, but also capital flows, real drivers of Bitcoin assessment. Massive FNB entries immediately after the election were not random. They represented coordinated institutional bets on a specific political future. And these bets reimbursed.
While the American elections have provided the most dramatic example of the political nature of Bitcoin, this phenomenon is not limited to American politics. Bitcoin price movements have responded more and more to political developments in the world. The adoption by El Salvador de Bitcoin is a call for tenders. The ban on the extraction of cryptography of China. The new libertarian president of Argentina expressing the support of Bitcoin.
Each political change triggers capital movements that are manifested in the Bitcoin price. This suggests that Bitcoin does not only reflect American partisan policy but also serve as a barometer for global attitudes towards monetary freedom, regulatory approaches and the power of the state. When seen through this objective, Bitcoin becomes something more than a simple technological innovation or inflation coverage. It becomes a referendum on the political systems themselves. A way for the capital to vote with its feet. A mechanism to express his confidence or his concerns about political directions that traditional assets cannot capture with the same purity.
While we look at the future of Bitcoin, the implications of its political nature become even more important. Will price forecasts be necessary to take into account the survey data? Will analysts' reports begin to include political risk assessments as well as technical analyzes? Will the correlation of Bitcoin with political events strengthen or will end up?
This political dimension will not disappear if soon. Unprecedented capital movements after the elections reveal a hyper-conscious market of political implications. For investors, this means developing a more nuanced understanding of how policy changes can have an impact on cryptographic markets. For decision-makers, this means recognizing that the regulation of cryptocurrencies is not only a technical question but more and more partisan.
The fourth reduction by half may not have triggered the expected bull race. But the 2024 elections certainly did it. And that tells us something deep about what Bitcoin has become – a political asset whose price is increasingly reflecting the political landscape as much as its underlying technology. The data does not lie. The greatest movements no longer come from the mining economy. They come from Washington.
