The American Committee Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) finally decided to reject its appeal against Kalshi, a derived negotiation platform, in a case which saw the agency debate the legality of electoral event contracts.
According to reports, the CFTC filed a request on May 5, 2025, the DC circuit court to voluntarily reject its appeal in its business against Kalshi.
The file indicated that the CFTC and Kalshi accepted the dismissal, and the two parties have chosen to take care of their respective costs and legal costs. The CFTC has not shared details on the reason for removing the call. However, the decision would have been made after a 3-0 vote by the commission (with a curator abstaining) to abandon the case.
The electoral markets are there to stay.
The prediction markets have been prohibited, censored, limited and pushed for decades. This victory consolidates their right to exist and prosper.
It really took a village. Thank you to everyone who was one of them, who stayed with us with the hard … pic.twitter.com/q0x6wlwvhe
– Tarek Mansour (@Mansourtarek_) May 5, 2025
The CFTC voluntarily rejects the case
The CFTC had previously exploded against the supply of event contracts by Kalshi which made it possible to bet on events such as the US elections. In a defense of his position, he argued that such contracts could threaten the democratic process or constitute a “game” outside the agency's jurisdiction.
In September 2024, a judge of the Federal District Court in Washington, DC, ruled in favor of Kalshi, giving him the right to offer these contracts. The appeal on the point of being rejected was the CFTC's response to this decision.
The dismissal does not surprise much, because it was planned, given the more friendly provision of the new administration towards the prediction platforms. There is also the fact that Kalshi now has links with the Trump family through Donald Trump Jr., his strategic advisor. President Trump's candidate for the president of the CFTC, Brian Quintenz, also happens to be a member of the board of directors of Kalshi.
Kalshi CEO, Tarek Mansour, famous Development, declaring on X that “the electoral markets are there to stay”, an article which reflects its confidence in the future of the platform.
Analysts think it is too early to celebrate
Although it seems that an agreement was concluded between the CFTC and Kalshi, the company is not yet completely out of the woods because the DC Circuit Court retains the power to refuse the request in dismissal.
This fact was highlighted by the lawyer for the game Daniel Wallach, who published a thread on the question on X. “The agreement between the CFTC and Kalshi to reject the call is not binding on the DC circuit”, he wrote Before adding that “the appeal courses were known to refuse queries stipulated to reject calls that have been fully informed and discussed orally, especially when they involve questions of public importance.”
The court's decision could depend on procedural or legal considerations, because the appeal had gone far enough, with oral arguments already heard. In addition, Kalshi still faces a regulatory examination on other event contracts, in particular those related to sports, state regulators in fields such as Nevada and New Jersey.
Despite these legal and regulatory challenges and the possibility that the dismissal is rejected, the CFTC's desire to have it expelled is proof of a regulatory climate matured sponsored by the new friendly administration Trump.
If the case is resolved, it would mark an important step for the prediction markets in the United States and a great victory for Kalshi, because it would not have to lose the huge market share associated with the markets linked to the elections.
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