Dangote Targets $30bn Revenue in 2026, But Global Oil Slump and Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Export Hopes

Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, is expected to have his extensive business empire on track to hit $ 30 billion in annual income by 2026. But that forecasting, delivered to a venture capital forum in Lagos on Thursday, has collided with the growing global indifference -the most noticeable, the most notable of the global economic -the most notable, the most obscurity of the hallmot US President Donald Trump and the resulting oil prices.

Dangote, whose conglomery covers cement, fertilizer, sugar, and now refining oil, said the group is expected to hit the $ 25 billion income next year, before adding another $ 5 billion by 2026, which is especially driven by its new 650,000 barrel-day-to-day refinery in Lagos. That refinery, he emphasized, would be a major foreign to earn an exchange, which helps Nigeria to reduce dependence on fuel imports and become a dominant force in petroleum exports.

But there is a drawback. Trump's altered tariff wars were beating through the global supply chain, and the oil market began to feel the strain. Last month, international benchmark Brent Crude slipped below $ 60 per barrel, its lowest point in nearly a year, reflecting a sharp collapse in global demand amid the rise of geopolitical tensions and trade friction that was attacked by Washington's aggressive economic nationalism.

Falling in oil prices releases the shadow in the asset that Dangote hopes to handle the next chapter of the group's growth.

While the US administration has been excluded from oil and gas from the latest wave of tariffs, indirect damage is evident. China, Europe, and other major markets have reduced energy purchases as they break down for a slowdown as output production has refused major economies – two symptoms of a contracting in the global trade environment. All of this means fewer consumers, lower prices, and increasing competition.

Dangote ignored the chaos. He admitted that his fertilizer business, another important export arm, was at risk due to US tariff adjustments.

“I remember about the US tariff because 37% of our urea went to the US,” he said. “Fortunately -for us, Algeria was slapped with 30% tariffs.”

That fortune stroke gave the Nigerian price advantage, but analysts warned that the advantage could fly, given how easy the Washington policy changes were.

Meanwhile, the broader relations with Nigeria's trade in the US are hanging on the balance. A report by approach and, the PWC's consulting arm, warned that Nigeria could soon disappear the major trade privileges under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), allowing duty-free exports to the US that the Trump administration floated the review of Agoa, citing a need to protect the American industries. Nigeria, who exports $ 1.76 billion worth of goods under Agoa in 2024, most of the oil and agricultural harvest, will be difficult to be able to take away any removal.

Dangote told investors that the group's cement production would increase to 62 million metric tons next year, from the current 53 million, putting his company ahead of Egypt's rivals and making it the largest manufacturer of African cement. Of the total group assets worth $ 27.5 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the business remains heavy in size and range.

“We will be number one,” he said, referring to the expansion of the group's cement. “We're building for the long term.”

However, the questions continue about whether that scale is sufficient during a global collapse. Analysts specifically doubt about the target income tied to the exports of oil at a time when the market is growing up.

Especially the situation about Nigeria, which relies on dangote refinery to ease the pressure on its money and reduce crude swap bills, the higher the stakes. The refinery is expected to prevent foreign exchanges by replacing the imported fuel with local refined products, while making a dollar from exports at the same time. But if global oil demand is diminishing, or if US protectionism intensifies, the expected gains may not be materialize.

Nigerian policy manufacturers are watching closely. According to Strategy & Report, titled general economic policy and implications for Nigeria, the country must now develop contingency plans for a world where US markets are less accessible. That could mean strengthening the region's trade within Africa, speeding up the refinery product standard to meet European export requirements, and exploration of non-oil exports.