The PMI of April of China was clearly hit by the US-China trade war. Official not making PMI and aggregate PMI also dropped. Signs of concrete export shock enhance the support likely. Beijing is still playing 'hard to get' compared to us in terms of potential trade communication, ABN Amro economist Arjen Van Dijkhuizen Tala.
April PMIS clearly hit the trade war
“This morning, China's April PMI is Macro's first monthly data to show a clear hit from increasing US-China trade war this month's course. On the manufacturing side, the official PMI published by NBS has dropped more than expected, returning to the territory of the recession. fell over four points in a post-paper low in 44.7.
“Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI-covers construction services and sectors-also dropped, but relatively modest, at a level of 50.4 (March: 50.8, consensus: 50.6). Sub-Index services fell to 50.1 (March: 50.3), as sub-index construction collapsed more intensely, to a three-month-old-511.9 (March: 53.4).
“All in all, China's April PMI is clearly signs of exporting shock related to the increased trade war, though we are still expecting exceptions, associating trading/variability and further finance and fiscal support to pillow to pillow to some extent China's growth, up to 4.1% (from 4.3%) for 2025 and 3.9% (4.2%) to 2026. We also noticed that the US is still trying to get China to the negotiation table, adding that China should take the initiative, but China is still playing 'hard to get' today for many reasons.
