The new ETF Crypto in 2025 now look like a real possibility with Bloomberg and Polymarket giving a decent chance for certain cryptos such as XRP, Sol, LTC, Doge or ADA to have ETF Spot approved this year.
ADA is based on 71% On Polymarket data. But, if the FNB ADA are approved, how would it affect the price? What if these ETFs get 5% of FNB BTC entries for the first 15 months?
Keep in mind that these hypotheses are made according to the current ADA price, so if the ETFs are really approved at the current ADA price.
Calculation of potential FNB ADA entries
As of April 30, 2025, US SPOT Bitcoin FNB have accumulated around 39.17 billion dollars in net entries since their launch in January 2024, according to Farside investor data.
If an ETF of Cardano was to capture 5% of these Bitcoin ETF entries, this would amount to around 1.96 billion dollars. This is a simple calculation: 39.17 billion dollars multiplied by 5% gives us $ 1.9585 billion in potential admissions for an ADA ETF.
To understand how it could affect the price of ADA, we must examine current market measures. ADA is currently negotiated at around $ 0.68 per room. With a circulating offer of around 35.7 billion ADA, this gives Cardano a current market capitalization of approximately $ 24.3 billion.
#Etf News: @Bomberg Intelligence presented its note from the chances of Crypto ETF approvals in 2025
▪️ 90% probability of $ Ltc And $ Soil
– Martyparty (@Martactartymusic) April 30, 2025
▪️ 85% for $ XRP
▪️ 80% for $ DOGE And $ Hbar
▪️ 75% for $ Dot,, $ ADA And $ Avax pic.twitter.com/axih6ivu
Potential scenarios of ADA prices impact
If we add potential FNB entries to the Cardano market capitalization, we can estimate the impact of prices. In an ideal scenario where 100% of ETF entries result in a direct purchase pressure on ADA, the calculation is simple. We would add the total of $ 1.9585 billion to the existing market capitalization of $ 24.3 billion, which resulted in a new market capitalization of approximately $ 26.24 billion.
With the same circulating offer of 35.7 billion ADA, the new price would be about $ 0.735 per room. This represents an increase of 8% compared to the current price of $ 0.68.
However, this ideal scenario rarely occurs in practice. A more realistic approach is to consider that only part of FNB entries create immediate purchase pressure on the free market. Many ETFs use over -the -counter trading or gradually accumulate assets to avoid market disturbances.
If we assume a more conservative scenario where only 30% of the entries reflect immediate purchase pressure, the impact would be smaller. Thirty percent of $ 1.9585 billion represent about $ 587.5 million. Adding to current market capitalization gives us $ 24.87 billion. This would lead to a new price of around $ 0.697, which represents a more modest increase of 2.5%.
Why ETF approval may not send Ada to the moon
There are several reasons why an ADA ETF would not automatically trigger massive price increases. First, FNB entries do not translate directly into immediate asset purchases. When an ETF launches, managers generally accumulate assets to minimize the shift.
They often use over -the -counter negotiation offices or work with guards rather than buying directly on the scholarships. This means that even if billions take place in an ADA ETF, only a fraction could create an immediate purchase pressure.
Second, Cardano's supply is much greater than that of Bitcoin. With more than 35.7 billion ADA in circulation compared to the maximum of 21 million parts of Bitcoin, Cardano has more than 1,600 times the number of parts. This important offer makes it more difficult for any event, even an ETF of a billion dollars, to considerably move the short -term price.
Third, price markets are often expectations before events actually occur. The cryptography market follows the classic model “Buy rumor, sell the news”. When an ADA ETF receives approval, a large part of the planned impact can already be reflected in the price. Unless FNB entries considerably exceed market expectations, real price gains after approval can be silent.
🇺🇸 Just in: Chances for Cardano $ ADA ETF SPOT approval in 2025 increased to 71%, according to Polymarket. pic.twitter.com/ulgfsficya
– Cardanians (CRDN) (@cardanians_io) April 30, 2025
Fourth, institutional demand differs from the interests of retail. Even with the approval of ETFs, ADA is always perceived mainly as an Altcoin focused on retail. Institutional investors tend to be conservative and may prefer Bitcoin or Ethereum because of their established regulatory clarity and their deeper liquidity. This could limit the immediate institutional adoption of an ADA ETF.
Finally, sustainable prices growth requires more than investment vehicles. While an ETF would certainly increase the credibility of Cardano in traditional financial circles, the long-term value of cryptocurrency depends on the growth of ecosystems, decentralized financial activity and the adoption of the real world of its technology. Without progress in these areas, the price gains of FNB approval can be temporary.
Read also: should you throw $ 1,000 in Cardano now? Ada Price Citélook
The situation as a whole for Cardano
An ADA ETF would be a positive development for Cardano, which could bring new credibility and modest capital entries. However, it is important to keep realistic expectations. Based on our calculations, if an ADA ETF captures 5% of Bitcoin ETF entries, we could see the ADA price from $ 0.70 to $ 0.74 in the best case.
True prices growth ultimately requires adoption, public services and continuous development momentum. Although an FNB approval is a bullish signal, it is not a magic solution that will automatically skyrocket prices. Investors should expect progressive growth rather than an immediate price explosion, unless the broader feeling of the cryptography market also becomes extremely positive.
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