Basic Points:
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Bitcoin entrepreneurs are waiting for the prompts of the US economic policy signs as data forces the Federal Reserve in a corner.
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Review is more likely than not, says resources, amid increased unemployment and resurgence inflation.
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Bitcoin and risk assets should eventually get from a shock in retreat.
Bitcoin (BTC) stands to get as a US backbone becomes the “Base Case scenario.”
Fresh review From the resources including the trade resource Kobeissi's letter is making serious predictions for the US economy and Federal Reserve.
Fed's “worst nightmare” is getting real
The health of the United States economy is due to the background of the trading tariffs and the resurgence inflation, which can accompany them.
The latest macroeconomic data, which includes the Q1 GDP and the Fed's “preferred” inflation gauge, places officials in a crowded area, Kobeissi said.
The GDP came below the expectations, which became negative against an assessment of 0.3% gain.
“Effectively, the Fed should choose between containing either inflation or unemployment,” summary it, calling the situation “Fed's worst nightmare.”
One major issue is the extent and timing of any reduction in interest rates-something that crypto entrepreneurs and risk assets are enthusiastic thanks to the positive knock-on impact of knock-on for markets.
“Not reducing interest rates will further weaken the US GDP and likely to increase unemployment. However, if interest rates are cut off immediately, we will expect to see another rebound on inflation,” Kobeissi continued.
So in a “loss-loss” situation, the Fed faces the threat of the same stagflation-rising inflation with rising unemployment-and a full contraction.
“A backdrop in the US has become our base case scenario,” added Kobeissi, who relates to the rising of odds with the Malashi prediction service.
Bitcoin's analyst sees a silver lining
The latest data from CME Group's Fedwatch tool Underscores the market expectations for the Fed policy, which remained conservative by 2025 despite the forcing US president Donald Trump's head down.
Related: Bitcoin 'Hot Supply' is close to $ 40B while new investors are flooded at $ 95K
The June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently an event that should be sparked in the next 0.25% cut, the consensus suggests. The May meeting, however, now has only 3% odds of such outcomes.
Participants in the crypto market are temporarily weighing the possible Fed course because the conditions are becoming difficult to navigate.
“Yesterday the market presented a 57% possibility of 25bps cut for June 18 by FOMC. Today it is 63%,” famous Skew businessman Commented In Fedwatch data.
“Pushing to shove in terms of economic data and rate reduction. The Fed will still remember about price pressure but more about the weakness within the economy, especially if the policy is not corrected at the time.”
Crypto entrepreneur, analyst and businessman Michaël van de Poppe predicts that only the backbone will cause the fed to think again.
“Rumors for a potential retreat are rising, which must strengthen the thesis for the fed to loosen the policy,” he wrote in part of a X reaction In Q1 GDP data.
“It is likely to be a low in markets, liquidity to be added and dangerous-to develop.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every transfer of investment and trading involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when deciding.
