Australian Automotive Software and Technology Provider Cox Automotive said the new car market is cool, despite the introduction of new brands and an expected oversupply. However, China Inc. will still end with one part of the record.
Industry and statistics and statistics and specialist appreciations that Cox Automotive Australia predicts more challenging times for the new Australian car market, but also the potential bargains.
In its 2025 forecast, Cox predicts a 5% decline in total sales compared to 2024, with a target of nearly 1.18 million units. Comparing the record record of 2024 a total of 1.237 million vehicles.
But what could be bad news for OEM insider insisting on reaching targets could be more attractive for new car buyers, with Cox predicting discounts thanks to oversupply while demand from private and fleet consumers will pull out in the face of ongoing harsh costs.
Chinese brands are likely to be the winners, Cox says, with such as byd, MG, and newcomers including Zeekr and Geely who are expected to break close to a 20% market sharing together.
“Prospective new car buyers fighting cost-of-living pressure can expect more affordable options by 2025, with incentives and discounts expected to re-infiltrate this year,” said Cox Automotive Australia (CAA).
“The growing inventory of the manufacturer and even more intense market competition, in conjunction with the current slowing down household demand for new vehicles, means 2025 will continue to offer a 'market market'-unlike the supply-constable' seller 'market we saw in 2021-2023,” the company said.
“In all likelihood, both private and sales of the Armada will face headwinds and cool years-on year in the first half of 2025 in particular, driving the introduction of more incentives at the OEM and Dealer to 'move the metal'-showing as discounts or lower financial interest rates,” he said.
Despite the pressure for car makers to move vehicles in the early months of 2025 – including vehicles imported in advance to meet new regulations of vehicle efficiency standards, which began on January 1 – Cox expects the first half of 2025 to pronounce most of 2024 in terms of soft private sales.
“Private vehicles sales-which means any non-business, government buying or renting Armada-reducing a large 8.0% throughout H2 2024, and the CAA expects structures that drive it in the first half of 2025 at least,” he said.
“Other factors that could affect non -private sales in 2025 include predicted slowing down the private investment pipeline, and the predicted short -term impact on lead to federal elections.”
Cox predicts better luck for electric vehicles – both hybrid and battery electric. It hopes that electrical battery vehicles will grow from under 7% to about 10% while electrified vehicles in general (battery electric, plug-in hybrids and hybrids) should take about 30% of the total market.
Cox calls the ending of the benefits of fringe tax concessions for renting phevs as a potential obstacle to their growth, but citing the arrival of plug-in utes such as Byd Shark, Ford Ranger Phev and commercial newcomers, including plug-ins from GWM, as a counterpoint.
“While cost-of-living pressure continues to affect the private market, and in the supply no longer an overarching problem, you can expect to see a more difficult sector in 2025, with pricing options of enthusiastic and financially likely results for private and Armada buyers,” said CEO of COO Automotive Australia's COO Stephen Leste.
What does this mean for new car buyers in Australia?
If you can buy a new car, do it as soon as possible -and to maximize your saving make sure it's a car sitting in the dealer stock.
This is especially true if the car is at the end of the 'dirtier' of the emission spectrum. The possibility is that later in 2025 and in 2026, diesel utes and SUVs will get more expensive as penalties related to failing to respond to the new vehicle efficiency standard will begin to affect new car brands.
Other factors that CAA says can affect the Aussie new car market and your bang for your bucks
- More cars from China – not just brand new brands, but a wider range of models from the brands that are on the market …
- Interest rates – Reserve Bank decisions to cute rates can free our decision on spending and strengthening demand.
- The Pacific Peso – Aussie's dollar shows every possibility of a nap. That will eventually push the car prices.
- Vote for me – in the past performance, a federal election in April or May will stop selling corporate and government. This means many cars for fewer consumers and the corresponding price decreases, especially at the end of the financial procedure (eofy).
- More Aussies-a jump of 1 million people in less than two years (in part due to post-paper transfer overseas) can reduce some demand cuts.
