- The Australian dollar remains under pressure while the US dollar is strengthened, supported by signs of softening American-Chinese tensions.
- China’s decision to exempt certain American imports from its 125% tariffs aroused certain optimism for better trade relations.
- The Federal Reserve is in its breakdown period before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on May 7.
The Australian dollar (AUD) extends the losses for the second successive session on Monday. The Aud / USD pair is under pressure while the USD dollar (USD) strengthens the signs of softening tensions between the United States and China.
On Friday, China exempted certain American imports from its 125%prices, according to commercial sources. This decision has fueled the hope that the prolonged trade war between the two largest economies in the world could fire.
However, Reuters quoted a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiation with the United States, declaring: “China and the United States have no consultation or negotiations on prices.” The spokesman urged Washington to “stop creating confusion”.
The AUD also faces opposite winds as expectations rise that the reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will provide another price drop of 25 points in May, while economic uncertainties were deepening and the concerns about the global environment is intensifying.
The Australian dollar falls while the US dollar is gaining ground in the midst of American-Chinese concerns
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the USD against six main currencies, earns land for the second successive day, negotiating nearly 99.60 at the time of the editorial staff. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is in used breakdown mode before its meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on May 7 (FOMC).
- American agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, as Reuters reported, that the Trump administration organizes daily discussions with China concerning prices. Rollins stressed that discussions were underway and that the trade agreements with other countries were also “very close”.
- Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, pointed out that it was encouraging to see the United States and China examining the prices. Hart noted that if the exclusion lists for specific categories would have been underway, no official announcement or policy has yet been published. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the American Department of Commerce are currently collecting comments on the issue.
- The United States Ministry of Labor (Dol) reported Thursday that initial unemployment benefits have increased for the week ending on April 19. Meanwhile, continuous unemployment complaints decreased by 37,000, falling to 1.841 million for the week ending on April 12.
- The American Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, admitted Wednesday that current prices – 145% on Chinese products and 125% on American products – are unbearable and must be lowered for significant dialogue to begin.
- The director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, chief economic advisor of President Trump, said that the American commercial representative (USTR) has planned 14 meetings provided with foreign trade ministers. Hassett also noted that 18 written proposals were received from these ministers. According to Hassett, China remains open to negotiations.
- Westpac has planned Thursday that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would reduce interest rates of 25 base points at its next May 20 meeting. The RBA has adopted a data-based approach during recent quarters, which makes it difficult to forecast its actions beyond the next meeting with confidence.
- An official from Beijing reiterated Thursday that no “economic and commercial negotiations” with us was underway and stressed that the United States had to “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” to open the way to talks.
- The Chinese finance ministry said on Friday that global economic growth remains slow, prices and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry has urged all parties to improve the international economic and financial system thanks to stronger multilateral cooperation, by Reuters.
The Australian dollar remains less than 0.6400; Resistance appears near the nine -day EMA
The Aud / USD pair is negotiated about 0.6390 on Monday, the daily graph showing a bitch bruise. The pair continues to maintain above the exponential mobile average of nine days (EMA), while the relative force index of 14 days (RSI) remains firmly above level 50, which suggests a sustained increase.
Uplining, immediate resistance is observed at the recent four -month level of 0.6439, displayed on April 22. A decisive rupture above this level could open the way to a gathering up to five months to 0.6515.
The initial support is aligned with the EMA of nine days of 0.6367, followed by a stronger support near the EMA from 50 days to 0.6305. A sustained drop below these levels would weaken the increased configuration and could cause deeper losses, with the bottom of March 2020 almost 0.5914 in sight.
AUD / USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of variation in the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Swiss franc.
| USD | Eur | GBP | Jpy | Goujat | Aud | Nzd | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.12% | -0.16% | |
| Eur | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.03% | -0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.18% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.29% | |
| Jpy | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.27% | -1.30% | 0.09% | |
| Goujat | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.23% | |
| Aud | -0.24% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.27% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.32% | |
| Nzd | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 1.30% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.28% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.29% | -0.09% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.28% |
The thermal map shows the percentage of variations in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen in the left column, while the quotes motto is chosen in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and you move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage of variation displayed in the box will represent Aud (base) / USD (quote).
Australian dollar faq
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rate set by the Bank of Australia (RBA) reserve. Because Australia is a country rich in resources, another key engine is the price of its greatest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and its commercial balance. The feeling of the market – that investors have more risky assets (risk) or are looking for safety havens (risk) – is also a factor, with a positive risk for AUD.
The reserve bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by fixing the level of interest rate that Australian banks can lend each other. This influences the level of interest rate in the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2 to 3% by adjusting increased or down interest rates. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative softening and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the old Aud-Negative and the second positive audience.
China is the largest trading partner in Australia, the health of the Chinese economy therefore has a major influence on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well, it buys more raw materials, Australian goods and services, to lift demand for the AUD and to raise its value. The reverse is the case when the Chinese economy does not develop as quickly as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data therefore often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pairs.
The iron ore is the largest export in Australia, representing $ 118 billion per year according to 2021 data, China as the main destination. The price of the iron ore can therefore be an engine of the Australian dollar. Generally, if the price of the iron ore increases, the AUD also increases, as the overall demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of the iron ore falls. Higher prices of iron ore also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns its exports in relation to what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly sought -after exports, its currency will gain only from the excess demand created from foreign buyers seeking to buy its exports in relation to what it spends to buy imports. Consequently, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
