Australian Dollar holds ground despite a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales MoM

• The Australian dollar retains her position despite a disappointing retail mother for March.
• The AUD can undergo pressure because the renewed fears of a global economic slowdown weigh on the raw materials markets.
• Trump reported potential trade agreements with India, Japan and South Korea, and expressed its optimism at the idea of ​​reaching a resolution with China.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rebounds modestly compared to the US dollar (USD) on Friday, retraced some of the losses of the previous session. However, the Aud / USD pair remains vulnerable because the drop in metal prices weighs the feeling. Key products such as iron ore, copper and gold have decreased in the midst of renewed concerns concerning a global economic slowdown, putting pressure on the Australian dollar linked to the products.

Adding to pressure, the signs of the softening of American trade tensions supported the greenback. The feeling of investors changed after the American president Donald Trump reported potential trade agreements with India, Japan and South Korea and expressed his optimism as to the resolution of tensions with China.

Retail sales of Australia – a key indicator of consumer spending – increased by 0.3% per month in March, against 0.8% in February (revised from 0.2%), according to data published Friday by the Australian Statistics Bureau (ABS). However, the figure did not pass the expectations of the market, which had planned a gain of 0.4%.

According to Bloomberg, China plans to renew commercial negotiations with the United States. The Chinese Commerce Ministry noted that Washington had contacted the advantage of resuming negotiations. However, China would produce an internal assessment and maintains that the United States should correct its actions related to the prices, which it considers as the unilateral trigger of the current commercial dispute.

Australia goes to the polls this weekend, and the result has several risks for the Australian dollar. The current survey slightly promotes the outgoing Prime Minister Anthony Albanian, but the race remains tight. A key concern is the possibility that the Albanians earn only a minority, forcing it to form a government with the support of the Greens and / or independents – by making the risk of larger budgetary policies and potential budgetary shift. Another short -term risk is the potential of a delayed result, without any clear result emerging for several days after the vote.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia at the beginning of 2025 weakened the expectations of additional monetary easing by the Bank of Australia (RBA) reserve. However, the markets anticipate a drop in the rate of 25 points in May, while decision -makers are preparing for possible economic benefits of the recently introduced American prices.

Progress in Australian dollars despite a stronger US dollar due to the feeling of cautious risk

• The US Dollar index (Dxy), which follows the USD against a basket of six large currencies, climbs for the fourth consecutive day, negotiating nearly 100.30 at the time of the editorial staff. The feeling of the market remains cautious before the next pay (NFP) report, while investors are looking for an overview of the impact of job trends.
• The greenback is supported by a prudent risk of risk and a dynamic of yield. However, its wider earnings remain limited because the markets await Friday employment data, in particular in the light of the manner and softer than expected manufacturing indicators.
• The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0, indicating continuous contraction in the sector. Although still below the 50.0 extension threshold, reading was better than the expectations of 48.0.
• The first unemployment requests increased to 241,000 for the week ending on April 26, above the consensual forecast of 224,000 and the revised figure of the previous week of 223,000. Meanwhile, the employment index in the ISM survey has shown a modest improvement, going to 46.5 against 44.7. While signaling the drop in manufacturing employment, the rate of deterioration seems to slow down.
• US President Donald Trump, in an interview at the Town Hall on the newspaper on Thursday on Thursday, expressed his optimism as to a potential trade agreement with China, saying that there is a “very good probability that we will conclude an agreement”. Trump stressed that any agreement with China must complete the American conditions. He also mentioned the possibility of future trade agreements with India, South Korea and Japan, and noted that an agreement with Ukraine was finalized earlier during the day.
• The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday a trade surplus of 6.9 billion AUD for March, considerably exceeding the expectations of 3.13 billion AUD and the figure revised in February of 2.85 billion AUD (compared to 2.97 billion AUD). The high surplus was driven by a 7.6% increase in exports and a 2.2% drop in imports for the month.
• On Wednesday, the Australian Statistics Office (ABS) said that the Consumer Price Index (IPC) increased by 0.9% over the quarter in the third quarter of 2025, against an increase of 0.2% in T4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of an increase of 0.8%. On an annual basis, the IPC climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating forecasts by 2.2%.
• Australian treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the markets still anticipate new interest rate drops. “The market expects more interest rate drops after inflation figures,” he said, adding that there is “nothing in these figures that would considerably change market expectations”.
• In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, in less the consensus of 49.9 and indicating a return to contraction. The non -manufacturing PMI also softened, relaxing at 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below 50.7 expected.

Australian Dollar finds support at 0.6400 near the nine -day EMA

Friday, the Aud / USD pair is negotiated approximately 0.6410, now a biased bias on the daily graphic. The pair continues to maintain above the exponential mobile average of nine days (EMA), while the relative force index of 14 days (RSI) remains comfortably greater than 50 – which both suggests a sustained increase.

The AUD / USD pair could find immediate resistance at the recent four -month level of 0.6449, displayed on April 29. A decisive rupture above this level could open the way to the highest from five months to 0.6515.

Lowering, the initial support is located at EMA nine days at 0.6387, followed by EMA from 50 days to 0.6320. A violation below these levels could weaken the prospects raised and can expose the pair to deeper losses, with the bottom of March 2020 almost 0.5914 as a distant target.

AUD / USD: Daily graphic