- The Australian dollar holds gains on Thursday after the publication of stronger commercial data.
- The Australia's statistics office reported a trade surplus of 6.9 billion AUD for March, exceeding expectations of 3.13 billion AUD.
- President Trump expressed optimism as to a potential trade agreement with China.
The Australian dollar (AUD) extends its gains against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday. THE AUD / USD The pair is appreciated after the publication of the data of the Australia trade balance. Traders are probably waiting for data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchase Managers (USA), which should be published later in the North American session.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics declared a trade surplus of 6.9 billion AUD for March, considerably exceeding the expectations of 3.13 billion AUD and the figure revised in February of 2.85 billion AUD (against 2.97 billion AUD). The high surplus was driven by a 7.6% increase in exports and a 2.2% drop in imports for the month.
Wednesday, the Australian Statistics Office (ABS) said the consumer Price index (CPI) increased by 0.9% over the quarter in the third quarter of 2025, against an increase of 0.2% of T4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of an increase of 0.8%. On an annual basis, the IPC climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating forecasts by 2.2%.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia at the beginning of 2025 weakened the expectations of additional monetary easing by the Bank of Australia (RBA) reserve. The markets largely predict a decrease in the rate of 25 points in May, while decision -makers are preparing for possible economic benefits of the recently introduced American rates.
The US dollar earns support as American president Donald Trump, in an interview at the Town Hall on the newspaper on Thursday on Thursday, expressed his optimism as to a potential trade agreement with China, saying that there is a “very good probability that we will conclude an agreement”. Trump stressed that any agreement with China must complete the American conditions. He also mentioned the possibility of future trade agreements with India, South Korea and Japan, and noted that an agreement with Ukraine was finalized earlier during the day.
The Australian dollar retains a position despite a better US dollar
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the USD against six main currencies, is gaining ground for the third successive day and is negotiated around the level of 99.70 at the time of writing. The US dollar is strengthening as merchants are evolving expectations for a reduction in interest rates by 1% by the US federal reserve (Fed) this year, following data indicating a contraction in the US economy in the last quarter.
- The US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.3% annualized in the first quarter of 2025, missing forecasts of 0.4% growth and strongly decreasing compared to the expansion of 2.4% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the basic personal consumption (PCE) price index – a key – pink inflation gauge of 2.6% in annual sliding in March, in accordance with expectations but slower than the 2.8% increase in February.
- On Tuesday, the American Labor Statistics Office said that the openings of job offers and work of labor work (JOLTS) fell to 7.19 million in March, against 7.48 million revised in February and below market forecasts of 7.5 million. This marks the lowest level since September 2024, reflecting the softening of labor demand in the midst of increasing economic uncertainty in the United States (United States).
- US President Donald Trump reported the opening up to the reduction of Chinese prices, while Beijing exempted certain American goods from his 125%samples. This decision has fueled the hope that the prolonged trade war between the two largest economies in the world could fire.
- Australia's monthly IPC held a 2.4% increase from one year to the next in March. Meanwhile, the average of the reserve bank of Australia (RBA) reduced the IPC average increased by 2.9% in annual sliding in the first quarter, in accordance with expectations, while the quarterly figure also meets the forecasts at 0.7%.
- Australian treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the markets still anticipate new interest rate drops. “The market expects more interest rate drops after inflation figures,” he said, adding that there is “nothing in these figures that would considerably change market expectations”.
- In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, in less the consensus of 49.9 and indicating a return to contraction. The non -manufacturing PMI also softened, relaxing at 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below 50.7 expected.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday that making concessions and withdrawals would only embrace the intimidator, stressing that dialogue is essential to resolve differences.
The Australian dollar remains greater than 0.6400; Find support near the nine -day EMA
The Aud / USD pair is negotiated almost 0.6410 Thursday, with the daily chart Maintain a bullish tone. The pair remains above the exponential mobile average of nine days (EMA), and the relative resistance index of 14 days (RSI) remains comfortably above the brand of 50, which indicates a continuous rise.
Rightly, immediate resistance is the recent four months of 0.6449, struck on April 29. A clear break above this level could open the door to the highest of five months of 0.6515.
Upon decrease, the initial support is observed at EMA from nine days to 0.6388, followed by EMA from 50 days to 0.6317. A break below these levels would undermine the bias bias and could expose the pair down, potentially targeting the bottom of March 2020 almost 0.5914.
AUD / USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of variation in the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | Eur | GBP | Jpy | Goujat | Aud | Nzd | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.29% | -0.00% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 0.12% | |
| Eur | -0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.26% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | -0.01% | 0.06% | -0.21% | -0.31% | -0.27% | -0.11% | |
| Jpy | -0.29% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.30% | -0.37% | -0.39% | -0.23% | |
| Goujat | 0.00% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.30% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.11% | |
| Aud | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.31% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.21% | |
| Nzd | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.39% | 0.06% | -0.03% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.23% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.17% |
The thermal map shows the percentage of variations in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen in the left column, while the quotes motto is chosen in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and you move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage of variation displayed in the box will represent Aud (base) / USD (quote).
Australian dollar faq
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rate set by the Bank of Australia (RBA) reserve. Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key engine is the price of its greatest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and its commercial balance. The feeling of the market – that investors have more risky assets (risk) or are looking for safety havens (risk) – is also a factor, with a positive risk for AUD.
The reserve bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by fixing the level of interest rate that Australian banks can lend each other. This influences the level of interest rate in the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2 to 3% by adjusting increased or down interest rates. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative softening and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the old Aud-Negative and the second positive audience.
China is the largest trading partner in Australia, the health of the Chinese economy therefore has a major influence on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well, it buys more raw materials, Australian goods and services, to lift demand for the AUD and to raise its value. The reverse is the case when the Chinese economy does not develop as quickly as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data therefore often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pairs.
The iron ore is the largest export in Australia, representing $ 118 billion per year according to 2021 data, China as the main destination. The price of the iron ore can therefore be an engine of the Australian dollar. Generally, if the price of the iron ore increases, the AUD also increases, as the overall demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of the iron ore falls. Higher prices of iron ore also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns its exports in relation to what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly sought -after exports, its currency will gain only from the excess demand created from foreign buyers seeking to buy its exports in relation to what it spends to buy imports. Consequently, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
