- Wednesday, AUD / USD is gaining ground after the publication of national intermediate economic data.
- The Secretary in the United States of the Treasury Bessent and the commercial representative Greer should meet the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister, He Lifeng in Geneva.
- The Fed should hold stable rates later in the North American session.
The Aud / USD pair continues its momentum upwards for the fourth consecutive session, oscillating around the mark of 0.6510 during the hours of Asian negotiations on Wednesday. The Australian dollar (AUD) finds support for the publication of national intermediate economic data and improving the feeling of world trade.
In April, the AIG industry index increased from 5.1 points to -15 on a seasonal adjusted basis, pointing out a modest improvement despite persistent opposite winds in the industrial sector. Challenges such as the uncertainty of global trade, the volatility of currencies and the imminent federal elections continued to weigh on activity. Meanwhile, the AIG manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed 3.0 points to -26.7, against -29.7 the previous month.
The feeling towards the AUD has also improved because the American-Chinese-Chinese trade tensions have shown signs of relaxation. In an important development, the secretary in the United States of the Treasury Scott Bessent and the commercial representative Jamieson Greer should meet the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister, He Lifeng in Geneva this weekend, marking the first high-level talks from the United States imposed prices that have turned into a global commercial dispute.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that after carefully asking American proposals and considered global expectations, national interests and industry comments, Beijing has agreed to engage in future negotiations.
For the future, the attention of investors is firmly on the decision to rate the Federal Reserve (Fed) later Wednesday. Although the Fed should largely have stable rates, the markets will examine comments from the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for any potential pivot index to short -term rate reductions.
Australian dollar faq
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rate set by the Bank of Australia (RBA) reserve. Because Australia is a country rich in resources, another key engine is the price of its greatest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and its commercial balance. The feeling of the market – that investors have more risky assets (risk) or are looking for safety havens (risk) – is also a factor, with a positive risk for AUD.
The reserve bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by fixing the level of interest rate that Australian banks can lend each other. This influences the level of interest rate in the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2 to 3% by adjusting increased or down interest rates. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative softening and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the old Aud-Negative and the second positive audience.
China is the largest trading partner in Australia, the health of the Chinese economy therefore has a major influence on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well, it buys more raw materials, Australian goods and services, to lift demand for the AUD and to raise its value. The reverse is the case when the Chinese economy does not develop as quickly as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data therefore often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pairs.
The iron ore is the largest export in Australia, representing $ 118 billion per year according to 2021 data, China as the main destination. The price of the iron ore can therefore be an engine of the Australian dollar. Generally, if the price of the iron ore increases, the AUD also increases, as the overall demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of the iron ore falls. Higher prices of iron ore also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns its exports in relation to what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly sought -after exports, its currency will gain only from the excess demand created from foreign buyers seeking to buy its exports in relation to what it spends to buy imports. Consequently, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
