- The AUD/USD pair is higher around 0.6400, up to 0.26% during the day.
- US GDP data missed the expectations, showing a backdrop of 0.3% in Q1 2025.
- Market expectations for a fed rate cut in June increased as weak data weighs in USD.
- Investors remain careful ahead of major US data releases, including NFPS and GDP for Q1 2025.
The AUD/USD pair saw a slight uprising while investors weighed weak economic data (US), including a backdrop in the Q1 GDP. The market now expects potential cuts on the Federal Reserve (FED) rate, forcing the US dollar (USD). Despite the ongoing trading of trade and uncertainty, the Australian dollar (AUD) performed well, along with the pair trading near the level of 0.6400. The next major focus is the release of US nonfarm payroll and GDP data later this week.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Poor US GDP, tariff concerns continue
- The AUD/USD pair increases after the fighting test near 0.6417, strengthened more vulnerable than the expected US GDP.
- President Donald Trump indicates in trade talks in Canada, but the uncertainty remains in US-China negotiations.
- China's weak manufacturing increases the sentimental-off sentiment, which affects goods prices such as copper.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) has a flat flat at 99.30, while entrepreneurs are awaiting major data releases to the economy.
- Personal consumption data shows moderate growth, but the overall economic perspective remains unsure.
- The US manufacture market shows signs of slowing down, with working data on ADP missing expectations.
- Entrepreneurs are closely watching PCE inflation data, with pricing markets on potential rate cuts.
- President Trump's comments on tariffs and trade policies will keep investors on the side, affecting the USD.
- The DJIA dropped 0.51% while the Q1 GDP's backbone weighs the sentiment on the market.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious in inflation, with softer CPI data increasing expected cutting rates.
- The global uncertainty surrounding trading policies maintains volatility in the market, especially in the FX market.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD maintains bullish outlook despite the weakness of US dollar
The AUD/USD pair shows a bullish signal, which trades around 0.6400, up to 0.26% during the day. The pair is currently positioned in the mid-range between 0.6356 and 0.6417. The KaMag -child Index Index (RSI) is neutral at 56.96, while moving the average convergence (MACD) indicates a purchase signal. The amazing oscillator is neutral at 0.0096. Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day SMA at 0.6391 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6281, support the bullish perspective. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6463 suggests a longer sale signal. Support levels are at 0.6391, 0.6377, and 0.6342, while resistance levels sit at 0.6409, 0.6411, and 0.6463.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a country that is rich in the resource of another major driver is the price of its largest export, steel. China's economic health, the largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and trade balance. The market feelings-whether investors take more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off)-also a factor, with a positive risk for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australia banks can lend to each other. It influenced the level of economic interest rates as a whole. The main purpose of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. The relatively high interest rate compared to other major central banks supports the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use the amount of easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, including the former aud-negative and the last aud-positive.
China is the largest Australian trading partner so China's economic health is a major influence on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When China's economy properly buys more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, demands for the AUD, and push its value. The opposite is the case when China's economy does not grow as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprise on Chinese growth data, therefore, often has a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australian's largest export, worth $ 118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of steel steel, can be an Australian dollar driver. Often, if the price of steel rises increases, the AUD also climbs, as the combined demand increases for increasing money. The opposite is the case when the price of steel falls falls. Higher prices of steel steel tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive trading balance for Australia, which is also positive in the AUD.
The trade balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports compared to what it will pay for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of Australia's dollar. If Australia produces highly sought -out exports, then its money will get value from excessive demand created from foreign consumers who seek to buy its exports compared to what it has spent buying imports. Therefore, a positive balance on the net trade strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
