Trump’s trade war means empty shelves are looming: How long until consumers feel the pain

The stories and images of empty ports in the West Coast are afraid that the Americans will soon feel the direct impact of President Donald Trump's ongoing tariff war. And according to supply chains experts and other analysts, they deserve to be remembered -it promises a harsh tag for consumers, retailers, and wider economies.

As Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods remain in the area, and no trading deal, there has been a decline in manufacturing orders from China, and freight bookings and US sailing also dropped.

Analysts ring alarm bells about the consequences of tariffs for weeks, and now the fall is beginning to form with what can add up to a slow moving catastrophe. Shipment cargoes are required to travel from China to the US, which means increasing or reducing trading is not as simple as flipping a switch.

Instead, the effects are felt in stages, according to the Global Apollo management. And the US reaches the tipping point.

• Early May: Consumers may begin to feel effects over the next two weeks, when the arrival of containers in the US ports begins to stop.
• Mid -May: With less transportation, demand for trucking can be slow, leading to empty shelves nationwide.
• Late May, early June: Apollo expects the disappearances to start in the trucking and retail industries as companies react to a slowing down sales. Layoffs of shipment Increase.
• Mid -June: Torsten Slok, Apollo's chief economist, expects a backwardness to follow, in Tag -Heart 2025.

Of course, the exact timeline will vary based on the US import product. Footwear is likely to be affected quickly, as the US is getting much here each other's supply From China. Fast fashion, in particular, can be more difficult to find. Children's toys and back-to-school items are likely to be difficult.

Executives from Amazon, Home Depot, and Walmart visited the White House last week to plead Trump against tariffs that could interfere with their businesses, but it is unclear where negotiations between the US and China, along with countries provide Adverse accounts of development made to this day.

“From a few weeks, we will just start running out of things,” Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council,told NBC News Last week, comparisons of deficiencies in the early days of Covid-19 pandemia. “If the administration is waiting to solve the problem until we have shortages and deficiencies, it's too late.”

We will not be saved by pre-orders

For the part of the Trump administration, Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent had more or less concerned with concerns about empty shelves Monday.

“We have some great retailers,” Bescent said in an interview with Fox News. “I think they are pre-order.”

There is evidence that some companies, especially the larger box retailers, loaded inventory earlier this year. The Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in North America, and the Long Beach port reported importation of shipment In February, it was noted that retailers were moving the goods leading to “expected tariffs placed in some imported goods and materials.” In fact, although February is usually the slowest month of the year for shipment from China since New Year's lunar, this is the most busy February in three years, according to Hackett Associates, which provides research and counseling services in the international maritime industry.

While the ports have not reported the numbers studied by Hackett Associates for March, the data is expected to be expected to reflect another busy month. However, it can be a different story.

“At this point, retailers are expected to return and rely on built-up inventory, at least for a long time to see what will happen next,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, said earlier this month.

But that inventory will run out, and retailers and consumers can deal with shortcomings afterwards. Imports are expected to fall 20% years over years In the second half of 2025, according to Hackett Associates.

Sea-Intelligence, a supply chain researcher dedicated to shipping container, Report The number of blank sailing – when an ocean carrier skipped a scheduled stop on a port – on transpacific trade routes “increased again this past week,” often noticed.

“If we look at the data, it is clear that the impact of the trade war caused the pause of multiple slippers, or directly cancel, shipments,” Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said in a press release. “This in turn reduces the demand for capacity in containers, where carriers respond by cancellation of sailing.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com