The first quarter of 2025 ended with a dramatic turn of the cryptocurrency market and for this reason many believe it is new crypto winterTo.
When the beginning of the year seemed to allow for new data, investors and analysts question the possibility of a global recession that could encourage the new winter.
This is exactly what the recent “Cryptocurrency Card Card” report, created by the Coinbase Institute, is evident in cooperation with Glassnode, which gives a comprehensive overview of the sector situation.
Market Slow: Beginning of the New Crypto Winter?
After an explosive December 2024 – as a crypto market (except Bitcoin), reaching $ 1.6 trillion dollars – the first quarter of 2025, the 41% plane crash, worth about $ 950 billion. In parallel, the venture capital stream in the sector decreased drastically, returning to the level 2017-2018. The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, global trade tensions and a more restrictive monetary policy has given the whole ecosystem.
In accordance Cave base and GlassesIt is necessary to be careful in the short term, but not everyone will lose: if the market device turns against the market device, the setback may be fast and vigorous. The expectations of the second half of the year in 2025 are still more optimistic.
The voices of the main characters: important data
The report also includes analyzes of the main player of some sector. Here are the highlights:
- Gray scale Emphasizes that, despite all the decentralized applications, the fees have been on the rise, which is a sign of strong demand.
- Tephra Digital Serious that many major brokers still limit the contact of Bitcoin ETFs: political change can cause up to 22 times higher investment wave than streams seen in 2024.
- Multicoiin capital Solana celebrates the success that earned more revenue in the first quarter than all other layers of the 1. and 2 layers.
- A16Z crypto Emphasizes the stablecoin rise, whose transaction volume (corrected “inorganic” activities such as robots) has reached record levels.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: stress signals as well as durability
BitcoinThe king of cryptocurrencies has retained some relative strength. Despite the fact that its price falls below $ 90,000, long -term BTC liquidity has increased, indicating that many investors are gathering, not selling.
However, other indicators tell a more complex story:
- Its Net unrealized profit/loss Bitcoin (NUPL) has fallen to 0.47, denoting shifting among investors in terms of denial of anxiety.
- More than 4 million BTC is now at a loss compared to the last transaction price, compared to less than half a million at the beginning of the year.
- Bitcoin's dominance over the entire market capitalization has risen to 63%, the highest level from 2021.
As for EthereumThe situation seems even more delicate:
- ETH price fell 45%in the first quarter.
- The air supply of the ether has increased by 15%, indicating more sales readiness.
- The transaction fees have collapsed 54%despite the number of stable transactions.
- More than 40 million ETH is now “Perertita”, reflecting investors' recent difficulties.
ETF's place and capital streams: mixed image
ETF Fund Flow Data show a mixed picture:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded positive streams until the beginning of 2025, but with the following slowing.
- Ethereum's ETFs have had a more volatile performance, without clear signals about the trend.
In addition, the report shows how the market for the futures and options is a decline in volumes compared to the post -American heights in 2024, but is certain in absolute numbers.
Correlations and volatility: Crypto is more isolated
Correlation data is also interesting: although the correlation between crypto and US equities has increased in the first months of the year, compared to other traditional assets (gold, bonds, currencies) crypto has maintained low or even negative correlations. The signal that Bitcoin and Ethereum could return as a distinctive asset in the extreme volatility stages and not just correlation with traditional markets.
From the point of view of volatility, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana have shown a high but not extreme level with more pronounced movements, especially Solanas.
Defi and 2. Layer: Development under the radar
Despite the context of a bear Decentralized Finance (Defi) Continues to show vitality traits:
- Its Ethereum's total value locked (tvl) Has reached $ 48 billion.
- Transactions 2. Layers like arbitrum, optimism and base are still certain, while Dencun's upgrading has drastically reduced transaction fees, increasing the efficiency of the network.
According to Coinbase and Glassnode, some events could quickly improve the scenario:
- The end of quantitative effort With the help of Fed, resulting in an increase in global liquidity.
- Fiscal stimuli The main economy, such as the European Union or China.
On the contrary, the worsening of trade tensions or new macroeconomic shocks can further exacerbate the crisis.
Conclusions: a defense strategy but ready to restart
The last advice of the report is clear: to take a short -term tactical and protective approachBut stay ready to act when the sentiment returns. Both the volatile and cyclical market as the crypto, the opportunities tend to be unexpectedly and only reward those who are well positioned.
Therefore, the second quarter of the 2025 year is crucial to understanding when we are on the verge of a truly long crypto or, as vice versa, the ecosystem can surprise again.
