Fed's decision on Wednesday is expected by the Americans, but even more by Polymarket Bettors. An investor bet $ 7,000 on a drop in interest rates of 25 bp. However, the dimensions point in a different direction.
According to the majority of Polymarket bettors (98%), the Fed will not change interest rates. On the other hand, 1.9% of merchants think that the Fed will lower the rates of 25 SBPS. If the latter passes, the trader could earn $ 400,000. However, it is almost impossible.
This guy will earn $ 400,000 if the Fed reduces the prices tomorrow.
He bet $ 7,000.
Silver or trade of the year? pic.twitter.com/n4tcd6qft7
– Polymarket (@polymarket) May 6, 2025
Trump's erratic implementation of the highest American prices in a century has devastated the confidence of consumers and businesses, has slowed down manufacturing and caused a huge rush on imports. This led the United States to get closer to the chances of a recession.
Jerome Powell has no interest in reducing prices, not after the insults that Trump has launched him. He clearly indicated that he was not in a hurry. However, never say.
Interest rates should not change anytime – blame the prices
The prices are likely to stay the same at the Fed meeting from May 6 to 7, which will be the third consecutive meeting. Eight times a year, the American central bank meets to talk about the health of the economy and make decisions concerning monetary policy. These decisions affect the rate of federal funds, which is the interest rate that US banks use to lend and borrow money overnight.
The Fed chair Jerome Powell He clearly indicated that he will continue to keep an eye on the job market and inflation before making cuts. There is too much doubt about the effects of the Trump administration’s economic plan, in particular the trade war and government cuts.
After all, The official mandate of the federal reserve is to maintain stable prices and to employ at a high level. In the end, the Fed maintains stable interest rates to see how the prices and other actions taken by the Trump government affect these important indicators over time.
Since December, the Fed has maintained the interest rate from 4.25% to 4.50%. According to forecasts by Fed decision -makers from March, rates will drop twice this year. However, these predictions seem to be destroyed now that there have been so many commercial news.
Fed officials think that prices will increase both inflation and unemployment, but it is not clear how or how long. Until now, economic data does not show that the country collapses. Even if the United States GDP FEll of 0.3% each year in the last quarter, consumer spending has still increased at a good rate of 1.8%.
In addition, Friday, the Labor Department published its highly anticipated job report. He showed that US companies have added 177,000 jobs in April, around 40,000 more than expected. The unemployment rate remained the same at 4.2%.
“The Fed monetary policy will depend on what side of their mandate, its inflation or its job is the most distant from the target”, “ said Matthew Martin, principal American economist.
Economists still fear that taxes get prices even more. In the meantime, people in the United States reduce expenses because they are afraid of a recession, and investors leave the stock market because it falls so quickly.
Americans are worried about jobs, taxes, prices, social services and almost everything that has an impact on their ability to earn money.
Although the Fed will not change interest rates tomorrow, the way it speaks and acts has a great effect on the markets. Any discourse on risk or uncertainty can scare investors and cause a chain reaction in the economy.
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