- The S&P 500 closed 1.47% on Friday but Future S&P dropped 0.77% in New York. Profits and macro-data are largely stronger than expected for the first quarter, but investors are probably waiting until the Fed's interest rate decision. Although the Fed should not change the rates, the comment of the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will probably move the markets worldwide.
The stock markets in Asia and Europe have largely increased this morning after nine consecutive negotiation sessions of the S&P 500 in the US term contracts dropped by 0.78% this morning, which suggests that some investors may want to sell their recent gains today.
The recent profits have been strong: “With 69% of S&P 500 companies having declared, 70% beat the profits of 1q … and 54% beat the estimates of income,” a JPMorgan Chase Dubravko Lakos-Bujas analyst told customers in a recent note.
More broadly, investors hold their breath for Wednesday's interest rate decision of the American federal reserve. President Trump has loudly argued that the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, should reduce the rate, but the smoke signals of the Eccles Building suggest that the central bank will arouse the pending prices. As always, it will be his comment and advice that will move the markets during the day.
Here is an instantaneous today's action:
- 30 -day Fed funds The market has given more than 98% chance that Fed maintenance rates awaiting 4.25% to 4.50%.
- The S&P 500 closed 1.47% on Friday but Future S&P dropped 0.77% in New York. (S&P remains down 3.31% ytd.)
- All adults Asian markets were standing this morning except China, where The CSI 300 slipped 0.12%.
- THE Stoxx Europe 600 was marginally at the start of negotiations.
- UK FTSE 100 was closed to observe the labor festival holidays.
- Palantant will publish your income after the bell today.
Although the Fed should not move interest rates –Fedwatch dashboard A “holder” of a 98% and more chance – Powell faces a non -enviable puzzle: recent income and macro -data are strong. Associated with President Trump's pricing regime, suggesting that inflation could rise up, which would force the Fed to increase rates. However, the data of the feeling and the investigation of the private sector remain dark – and the prices themselves have not yet struck the real world. This suggests an economic slowdown, which would require the Fed to lower rates.
In the absence of a clear direction anyway, the Fed is likely to hold. The last public declaration of a member of the Federal Open Markets Committee came from Beth Mr. Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, who stressed this feeling. “I think we have to be patient. Fortune.
The chief economist of Goldman, Jan Hatzius, thinks that the Fed could be somewhat biased towards the cuts rather than the increases. “While the FOMC seems to set a higher bar for rate drops than during the 2019 trade war, we do not think that high inflation would dissuade to reduce if the unemployment rate begins to make itself higher as the tariff shock strikes the economy,” he told investors in a recent note.
“The main problem of the Fed is the uncertainty of inflation. There is little confidence in future commercial taxes. Overnight, US President Trump declared a 100% tax on imported films –Mr. Bean is apparently a threat to national security, “said UBS analyst Paul Donovan this morning.
This story was initially presented on Fortune.com
