For a few days today, there are many positive signals about the price of Bitcoin, which, however, is not rising now.
In fact, many analysts are not expected to rise today, as things change if you look a little ahead.
It is therefore necessary to make a clear difference if one wants to understand why, despite the positive signals, the price of bitcoin does not increase today.
The history of bitcoin to this day
The key to understanding this apparent contradiction is the separation of the examination by the time, that is, short -term compared to the medium term.
In the short period of time, the two dynamics still remain on top of Bitcoin price That has influenced it for months now.
The first is the relevant Gold price.
Bitcoin in financial markets is seen as an alternative to gold riskTherefore in some ways similar, but fundamentally different.
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Moreover, since mid-December there has been a strong growth in gold price growth, rather unusual, clearly announced that there is a flight from risk. Despite this, however, the price of Bitcoin, which is an absolute risk-on asset, does not seem to be affected by many.
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In fact, the price of gold ranges from $ 2,600 an ounce on December 20 to $ 3,500 an ounce throughout the time recorded for a short moment on April 21. At that time, the price of Bitcoin came from more than $ 100,000 to less than $ 90,000, which is not an unusual fluctuation.
The fact is that at the same time, the Dollar index also fell, against which in the medium/long term the BTC price is inversely correlated. And thus, while on the one hand perhaps dry the capital from the bitcoin market for months, on the other hand, the US dollar dxy index prevented a strong decline, as it fell from 108 to 98 points.
The short time
These two dynamics are still acting on the price of bitcoin, though this may be true only in short time.
In particular, from Friday close to $ 3,240 per ounce, the price of gold now rose to $ 3,260 per ounce, and although it was a very small increase, it had the strength to overcome a small decline in bitcoin price.
The fact is that beginning from April 23, the upward phase of gold price began after mid -December seems to have ended, but since last Thursday, the subsequent down stage seems to be interrupted.
In fact, the movements of the last two weeks were completely falling into the ascending channel that began in the second half of December, so it was clear that the markets were concerned that last week's fall could ultimately become just a flash in the pan.
It should be added, however, with some analysts convinced that 2025 gold price peak is not yet coming, while others argue that a downward stage should instead start shortly. On the other hand, the anomaly in the price of gold is bright and very significant, perhaps even over the historical trend of this low property.
Moreover, many analysts expect a small and short rebound of the dollar index, which has been actually conducted since April 29, even though it is unclear.
The medium term
In Medium termHowever, the two dynamics mentioned above can be reversed.
In other words, a phase of the bear in the price of gold can really be triggered, even though the movements in a possession that generally have less mental change often requires a long time ago.
As such, it should be added that the recent small rebound of the dollar index could also end the end within a week or two, and it could continue the stage of refusal that began with Trump's inauguration in the White House in January.
Keep in mind that declining the dollar index is not uncommon, because even though it has not set any records, it is faster than the past.
The US dollar tends to be a powerful money in the global financial market, so it's not uncommon for the strength to drop very fast, even in a very limited way from a volume of perspective.
All of this means that in a short time the situation may remain the same as in recent times for the price of Bitcoin, but in the second half of May things may change.
This is why it is probably so much hope for an increase in BTC prices today.
