- A more in -depth examination of the April job data suggests that this could be more witness to the resilience of the American economy than sound approval from the economic plan of President Donald Trump. However, the stock markets pushed a sigh of relief as the fears of recession were cleaned, which could give the administration more leverage in future commercial negotiations.
Price uncertainty did not prevent the report on the widely expected jobs on Friday from storming the dark expectations of Wall Street, and President Donald Trump seeks to win. Stephen Miran, the president's best economic advisor, continued Bloomberg television To celebrate the “second jobs of Trump, beaten immediately” after the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, well above the 135,000 additions of market pay.
Many economists and investors warn the worst prices' impacts are still on the horizon, however, if the administration is not soon finding an exit ramp. Meanwhile, a more in -depth examination of the data on jobs suggests that this could be more witness to the resilience of the American economy than an approval that sounds from the president's economic plan.
For example, Trump's prices are ostensibly intended, at least in part, to rebuild the industrial base of America, and the president signed a executive decree During his first day at the office, calling for deregulation to “release” American energy.
Friday, however, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Employment has shown little or no change in industries such as manufacturing, construction, mining, career and extraction of oil and gas.
Instead, the majority of new jobs came from industries that do not necessarily reflect the priorities of the administration. The health care sector added 51,000 jobs in April, while the private education and health services component represented 70,000 new recruits, despite fears that the cuts to federal funding will mean for the two industries.
And even if the “Department of Elon Musk Elon Musk has brought a chainsaw in the federal workforce – the sector losing 9,000 jobs in April and 26,000 in total since January – government jobs have increased by 10,000 as the hiring and local hiring more than compensated by the DOGE.
These nuances did not prevent the administration from celebrating the report.
“Salaries continue to increase and participation in the active population increases,” said the press secretary of the White House, Karoline Leavitt Fortune. “This is exactly what we want to see. More Americans working for higher wages. No more victory is on the way! ”
Average hourly income increased by 0.2% in April, below 0.3% of Wall Street; Annual wage growth was 3.8%, unchanged from March.
Good and bad news for Trump
Signs the labor market remains solid, however, it is unlikely that Trump can arrive at interest rates. Shortly after the report was published, the president posted on Social truth Demand that the Federal Reserve has reduced its policy rate to reduce loan costs for Americans.
Most of Wall Street, however, considered the data as a cement of the “wait” approach to the central bank. The Fed is almost guaranteed to maintain stable rates during its meeting next week, and most traders now expect the same thing in June before a reduction in the point of 25 basins in July, according to the CME group Fedwatch tool.
Merchants have also reduced their bets on Fed rate drops by selling bonds, which would become more attractive compared to the new debt if the central bank reduces interest rates. The yield on the Treasury at 2 years, which increases as the price of the obligation decreases and is closely linked to the rate of federal funds, jumped 13 base points on Friday afternoon. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Capital Management Infrastructure, said Fortune The chances of a decrease in June seemed to be distant.
“The only thing that will bring them out of the penny, because they are all economists on the labor market, is a weakening of the labor market,” he said about the Fed.
Of course, a good report on jobs cannot be bad news for the president. After all, there are not yet signs of pricing stress that strikes the job market, said Jamie Cox, managing manner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia.
“If you are going to embark on a trade war and your economy is based on consumption, this is the lever effect you want,” he wrote in a note on Friday.
The stock market, still in shock from a free fall induced by prices at the beginning of the month, sigh of relief. The S&P 500 increased by around 1.5% on Friday afternoon.
“If the labor market resists and the Trump administration returns the most flagrant prices, the economy could circumvent a deep recession,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at the broker and LPL Financial heritage in a note on Friday.
However, with regard to Trump taxes on imports, many economists warn most of the economic impacts to play. For example, Friday's pay data has shown that transport and storage added 29,000 workers in April. Some economists have attributed this bump to the importers rushing to fill up on goods before the higher prices are triggered. Torsten Sløk, chief economist of the Apollo investment capital giant, mass layoffs predicted that industry could strike industry this month in the middle of a spectacular slowdown in world delivery, in particular between the United States and China.
“It would be surprising that the wage bill of logistics, manufacturing and retail sectors was unscathed by the imminent decline in goods entering the American ports in the coming weeks,” American chief economist, on Friday, American Macroeconomics on Friday.
This could start to appear on next month's report.
This story was initially presented on Fortune.com
