- USD/CHF trades lower, floating at the lowest level of the week, as the fears and weak Chinese PMIs are weighing the sentiment.
- The US GDP signed in the 2nd quarter, PCE inflation cools down and traders now question Fed's next step in Trump's updated criticism of Powell.
- The technical indicators are still coarse, with USD/CHF limited to a medium resistance and negative risks for 0.8120 and 0.8070.
The USD/CHF trades at a loss, staying with its recent lowest lowest lowest waves and macros signals from China, which worsened, triggered widespread risk flows on the market. The cognition was fragile for Wednesday, and the US GDP printed publication, which is disappointing, increased concern about the health of the US economy. At the same time, the weak Chinese production and services revealed the first clear signs of stress on the escalation of the trade war, increasing fear of global economic retardation. The US dollar is broadly under pressure, trying to work hard despite the end of the month.
On macro surfaces, the US GDP signed 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, a sharp reversal of 2.4% of the growth, which was observed in 2024 and significantly below market expectations. The decline reflected the weaker costs of consumers, the decline in government spending and the expanding trade deficit. Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation came in 2.3% a year ago, compared to 2.5% in February, in accordance with consensus, but continuing the price pressure cooling trend. Personal income and expenses were modestly surprised, but could not support the dollar. President Trump's renewed attacks on FED manager Powell added fuel during the Detroit demonstration because the president claimed that “knows” more than “prices” than Powell and demanded more aggressive alleviation.
When the silver prejudices were combined, the Chinese April production PMI fell sharply to 49.0, which is the lowest level from 2023, and the export component fell to 44.7. Non -production also slowed down, services and construction readings were closer to stagnation. This confirmed a serious export shock and raised the likelihood of additional stimuli measures from Beijing. Traders responded quickly by selling USDs in general, while demand for traditional safe paravors, such as Swiss frank strengthened. In the meantime, Chinese golden ETFs saw their biggest outflow at 264 sessions and copper prices collapsed as CTA-controlled liquidations escalated before the holy holidays in Asia.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
From a technical point of view, the pulse signals are clearly suffering from USD/CHF. The relative strength index (RSI) is less than 40, which confirms the thrust while the MACD remains in the negative territory, referring to continued sales pressure. The couple trades with their 10-day and 20-day mother, strengthening negative prejudices. The strong obstacle can be seen near 0.8280 and 0.8340, while the immediate support is about 0.8120, the deeper step is directed 0.8070 and potentially 0.8000 in the scenario.
Markets are now shifting to the Friday's non -agricultural payroll report, which offers recent information on the US labor market strength and provides expectations of Fed's May 7th political decision. Until then, the sentiment remains fragile and tilted with the US dollar.
Daily chart
