- EUR / USD ticks below Wednesday in the middle of a modest USD force, although it lacks follow -up.
- Paris for the softening of more aggressive policies by the Fed Cap the Uppside and support the pair.
- Merchants are now impatiently awaiting key versions of the US euro / macro area for significant opportunities.
The EUR / USD pair recovers a few pips from the neighborhood of the mixture-1500, or from the low Asian session, although it lacks follow-up in the middle of a slight increase in the US dollar (USD). The cash prices are currently negotiated around the 1.1375 zone and remain confined in a familiar range held during last week.
The USD attracts buyers for the second consecutive day in the midst of a repositioning exchange before the main data of the American macro-data this week. The shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by dominant signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), which turns out to be another factor acting like a headwind for the EUR / USD pair. In fact, traders estimate about 75% chance of reducing an ECB reduction rate in June.
The bets have been reaffirmed by the remarks of the decision maker of the ECB, Olli Rehn on Monday, claiming that the underlying inflationary pressures in the euro zone are ensuring and that we must not exclude rate reductions below the neutral rate. In addition, the member of the BCE board of directors, Piero Cipollone, said on Tuesday that the uncertainty of commercial policy could reduce the commercial investment of the euro zone and real GDP growth by approximately 0.2% in 2025-26.
USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets in the interests that Trump's erratic trade policies could trigger a net economic slowdown. Adding to this, the refined expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its cutting cycle of the rates quickly contributes to the USD cap and acts as a rear wind for the EUR / USD pair, guaranteeing a certain caution before positioning for any significant drop in intraday.
The merchants are now turning out of the Flash German, French and Italian CPI impressions, which, as well as the Euro zone GDP report, will influence shared currency. Meanwhile, the American economic file includes the ADP report on the employment of the private sector, advanced GDP of the first quarter and the consumer price index (PCE). This could lead the USD and provide momentum to the EUR / USD pair.
Economic indicator
Gross domestic product SA (qoq)
Gross domestic product (GDP), published by Eurostat On a quarterly basis, a measure of the total value of all the goods and services produced in the euro zone for a certain period of time. GDP and its main aggregates are among the most important indicators in the state of any economy. Reading the QOQ compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, an increase in this indicator is optimistic for the euro (EUR), while a low reading is considered to be lower.
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Next version:
Sea April 30, 2025 09:00 (Prel)
Frequency:
Quarterly
Consensus:
0.2%
Previous:
0.2%
Source:
Eurostat
