Bettors on the platforms of Polymarket and Malashi predicts the US economy. Until April 29, both platforms predict that the US will log an economic backward in the first quarter of 2025 with an upcoming economic data release.
The US has been logging positive figures of growth every quarter since 2022, and a return to that trend can mark the start of a retreat.
The pessimistic perspective has been marked with a Stark Shift shift for predicting markets, which recently expected a positive US growth report. On April 29, the Consensus Q1 US growth was estimated in Milance, an exchange of US derivatives, which fell from around 0.5% to -0.4% less than 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors set the odds of a US economy in Q1 around 70%. On April 28, they still had a desirable perspective.
The move will come one day after Canada, the second largest trade partner of America, elected liberal Mark Carney as Prime Minister. Carney swore to take more Hawkish stance during the Canadian trade war with the US.
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The markets are on the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which releases official steps of America's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The report will provide a clearest perspective on the impact of the controversial trade policies of President Donald Trump.
Proper markets work by letting users of trading contracts tied to specific events, with prices that change dynamically -change based on the expected outcomes.
In 2024, event contracts were proven to be reliable as traditional polls, forecasting not only the win of Trump's election but also the demolition of his party in the US House and Senate.
TARIFF TURMOIL
On April 2, Trump announced plans to put tariffs on importing the US. The president has since been silent on the control of tariffs in some countries, but the presence of a global trade war is still.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is already weighed in US economic data.
In April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index-a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers-reported sharp decline in activity since 2020.
Analysts say the factories are in contact with the impact of Trump's tariff plans, which can raise production costs for manufacturers.
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