Singapore, April 29, 2025 / Prnewswire / – HTX Deepthink is dedicated to the exploration of global macro-tendencies, key economic indicators and major developments in the cryptographic industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX Deepthink aims to help readers “Find order in chaos. “”
This week, Bitcoin increased to $ 95,000 while President Trump reported a softer position on prices, increasing the feeling of the market. However, uncertainty about trade negotiations persists. With the liberals of critical economic data on the horizon, the beginning of May can offer a brief but important liquidity window for the cryptographic markets. In this edition of HTX Deepthink, Chloé (@Chloetalk1) HTX Research breaks down the changing macro landscape and describes key risks and opportunities for the space of digital assets.
Trump's second 100 day agenda: deliver promises, catch the next wave
During his first 100 days, President Trump quickly implemented several cryptographic friendly measures, including the refinement of the regulatory framework for the stable and the reduction of public spending via DOGE. Then, the White House will focus on the finalization of trade agreements and the progression of a peace effort in Russia -Ukraine, while pushing through the “large, beautiful” package – operating large tax reductions, robust border security measures and regulatory declines – and guaranteeing the passage of the Senate of the Bill Fit21 to provide a clear framework for the regulation of American digital networks.
Summary of the market last week: decoupling and key motors
Last week, the cryptographic markets initially decoupled from American actions, drawn by a weakened dollar, the increased cryptographic allowances of traditional companies and financial institutions, an increase in the stabing emission on the chain and continuous net entries in the Bitcoin ETF – reprimanding Bitcoin up to $ 88,000. Later, the softening of rhetoric on the prices of President Trump and the secretary of the Treasury, Bisset, further strengthened the feeling. However, although the signals of commercial progress are encouraging, real agreements remain for months and and hard tariff hawks within the administration continue to exert a significant influence, posing a major uncertainty for the prospects.
Key data to come: short and medium -term inflection points
This week's macro calendar is essential.
- April 30 at 12:30 pm UTC: US Q1 GDP (expected 0.2 to 0.4%, down compared to 2.4%) and Core PCE (month to month: ~ 0.1%)
- May 2 at 12:30 pm UTC: non -agricultural payrolls April (130K estimated against 228K before) and the unemployment rate (stable at 4.2%)
If the data shows to weaken growth but soften inflation, it will strengthen the expectations of the mid -year rate and will probably raise risk assets such as bitcoin and tandem etherum. Conversely, if all measures exceed forecasts, price hopes can be delayed or fears of increased rates, resulting in higher treasure yields and dollar and weighing on the short -term cryptography market.
In extreme cases:
- Negative GDP + job losses → Panic sale, rebound on relaxation bets
- Hot inflation + growth in standby → the risks of emerging stagflation
Fed is stable: “preservation of self-preservation” behind a technically valid rate drop
Currently, the Fed reserve sales amount to around 3.3 billions of dollars, the reversed references of day overnight at 94 billion dollars, and the general treasury account remains high – conditions which technically allow a drop in rate. However, during the year 2024, the Fed paid $ 226.8 billion in interest on reserves and the RRP, while earning only $ 158.8 billion on treasury bills and MBS, causing a net loss of $ 77.5 billion. A drop in the rate of 0.3 PPT would reduce annual portfolio revenues of around $ 20 billion out of $ 6.7 billions of dollars in assets, the widening of losses and the reduction of funds to the US Treasury. To preserve its financial sustainability and political independence, the Fed has chosen to maintain unchanged rates.
Liquidity window and summer risks: synchronize optimal input
If this week's data align with a slowdown, can offer a brief liquidity window because the funds run in crypto. However, once the debt ceiling is increased – in a zero way in June to July – the Treasury will renew its TGA to $ 50 to 60 billion via a new bond issue, draining the equivalent liquidity of the markets. Short -term rates will increase and risk assets will be subject to pressure; Historically, Bitcoin and the wider market fell from around 5% to 10% in the weeks following these TGA reconstructions. Investors should therefore capitalize on the window of the first May while covered for the summer liquidity drain.
Perspectives: stay disciplined, follow the trend
In a context of intersection policy catalysts and liquidity changes, short -term tactics should focus on key data versions and the Mayy liquidity window, while longer attention is focused on the implementation of FIT21 and continuous institutional adoption of the BTC and other assets like Solana. The next big upward trend could well occur under these double tail winds: to seize the opportunity.
* The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of an investment product.
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