“This is perhaps the most optimistic configuration for Bitcoin since 2020,” said analysts of the BTC financial services company on May 3.
The first observation was that the bet Safe Haven of 2025, Gold, has just had a historic race, having increased by 30% since the start of the year, reaching a summit of all time of just over $ 3,400 per ounce on April 22.
However, it now takes a break, having dropped around 3% this week while Bitcoin increased by around 4%, they observed.
“Whenever BTC begins to catch up like that, this is the beginning of something bigger,” they said before adding this last time, BTC went from $ 70,000 to $ 108,000.
This may be the most optimistic configuration for Bitcoin since 2020.
Gold takes a break.
Liquidity increases.
And Bitcoin is quietly positioning himself for something big.Here is why all the signals flash green pic.twitter.com/95dwb3xuqn
– Swan (@Swan) May 2, 2025
Liquidity increasing
The second signal is a global increase in liquidity in the form of the money supply of M2, which has increased for the first time since 2021. According to the Fed of St. Louis, the M2 M2 Mass mass A increase 4% in the last 12 months.
“Each large bitcoin market has followed this model: expand the money supply, soften the financial conditions, decrease trust in Fiat. It's fuel, and Bitcoin is designed to absorb it. ”
Volatility has also recently increased the levels of March 2020. The Vix (VIX) volatility index – a measure of waiting for the volatility of the stock market – calmed down, but uncertainty did not do so, and the markets are nervous, they said.
“Bitcoin thrives in chaos because it offers certainty, purpose and neutrality when everything else is broken down.”
The economist and author Timothy Peterson also commented On the VIX, observing that the index has gone from 55 to 25 during the last 50 days of negotiation, and a VIX score less than 18 years involves a “risk” environment, promoting assets like Bitcoin, which could occur “in a few weeks”.
Its monitoring model, which was precise 95% of the time, predicted a BTC price of $ 135,000 in the next three months, if the VIX remains low.
Swan analysts underlined the MVRV report, a measure of the market value divided by a value achieved, which simply rebounded 1.74. This “marked the start of each large bitcoin market”, and he flashes again, they said.
In addition, “the sellers seem exhausted between $ 90,000 and $ 100,000,” they said before adding that the price increases above the cost base, and low hands have disappeared.
“It is the structure historically seen when bitcoin is about to become vertical.”
Impact of interest rates
At the current levels, each drop in the basic point of rates of the rate is equivalent to an increase of approximately 10% of the price of Bitcoin, observed Peterson on May 2.
Given the speed at which this rate is down, a drop of 75 basic points is reasonable in one to two months, he said before adding “this would put Bitcoin almost $ 130,000”.
BTC increased by more than 15% in last month and closed $ 98,000 at the end of negotiation on Friday, its highest level since February 21.
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